Urea Daily Review: Companies are ready to support high-priced purchases and the market is in a game state (April 23)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on April 23 was 2,239.68, a decrease of 16.95 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.75% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.94%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR409 contract is 2035, the highest price is 2035, the lowest price is 2000, the settlement price is 2014, and the closing price is 2015. The closing price is 41% lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 1.99% month-on-month, and the fluctuation range throughout the day is 2000-2035; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 195; the 09 contract has reduced its position by 573 lots today, and so far, it has held 244880 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices continue to decline. Currently, there is low willingness to adjust prices in successive shipments, and the quotations are large and small, and they are sorted downward.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China fell to 2,190 - 2,240 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,200 - 2,230 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,190 - 2,300 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles stabilized at 2,230 - 2,250 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,080 - 2,230 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,300 - 2,330 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China fell to 2,190 - 2,210 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China fell to 2,180 - 2,550 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, most manufacturers implement advance orders in advance. Under the support of waiting, the current quotations are stable. After the overall increase in the quotations of enterprises in the early stage, the current quotations of all enterprises are at a high level, and the ex-factory quotations of some enterprises with a small number of advance receipts are the first to be loosened and lowered. In terms of the market, the market trading atmosphere is different from the previous period. The impact of export policy news on the trend of market prices has weakened, and the mentality of operators has been cautious. Under the influence of high prices, the market has become afraid of high prices. They continue to follow up and are weak, and the overall trading atmosphere has declined. In terms of supply, the number of parking and maintenance companies in the industry increased this week, and Nissan dropped to below 180,000 tons for the first time in recent years. On the demand side, market sentiment has affected the mentality of downstream purchasing, and the pace of downstream follow-up has slowed down. The use of fertilizer in agricultural rice areas has begun, and more appropriate replenishment has been followed up; the transaction in the industrial compound fertilizer market has improved, factory start-up has been stable, and the procurement of raw materials has been continuously followed up.

On the whole, the current operation of the urea market is deadlocked. Companies 'quotations are firm at high levels under the support of waiting, and downstream fears of heights are obvious. In the mental game, it is expected that the urea market will be steadily consolidated and prices will gradually lower in a short period of time.