PVC: Futures rose significantly in early trading, with positions on the market being lightened, and spot prices tentatively increased slightly

PVC futures analysis: April 22nd V2409 contract opening price: 5869, highest price: 5940, lowest price: 5866, position: 834552, settlement price: 5912, yesterday settlement: 5902, up: 10, daily trading volume: 796684 lots, precipitated capital: 3.455 billion, capital outflow: 66.77 million.

 

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	April nineteenth	April 22nd	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5450-5520	5470-5540	20/20	Send to cash remittance
East China	5510-5600	5550-5630	40/30	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5580-5630	5580-5630	0/0	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5400-5600	5400-5600	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5530-5580	5550-5590	20/10	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5420-5610	5420-5640	0/30	Kuti / send to

 

PVC spot market:    China PVC market mainstream transaction prices are mainly sorted out slightly, and prices in some areas are trying to rise slightly. Compared with the valuation, North China rose 20 yuan / ton, East China increased 30-40 yuan / ton, South China and Northeast China were stable, Central China rose 10-20 yuan / ton, and Southwest China increased 30 yuan / ton. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises happened to be not significantly adjusted on Monday, although the futures futures price was strong, but most of the production enterprises were wait-and-see and there were few contracts signed on Monday. The price of traders in each region changed little, but the high price was blocked, some of the transactions were negotiated slightly, and the advantage of the basis offer declined after the price went up, and most merchants turned to 09 contracts. Among them, East China basis offer 09 contract-(330), South China 09 contract-(280), North 09 contract-(600), Southwest 09 contract-(400). On the whole, the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream is not high, most of them give priority to the consumption of raw material inventory, and the spot purchasing enthusiasm is low.

 

Futures point of view:   PVC2409 contract on Friday night trading prices rose slightly after the shock, the overall night trading did not see an obvious trend of change. Futures prices rose significantly after the start of morning trading on Monday, hitting a high of 5940, mainly in the afternoon. 2409 contracts fluctuated in the range of 5866-5940 throughout the day, with a shortfall of 20463 positions in 74 and 09 contracts. So far, 834552 positions were held, 05 contracts closed at 5775, and positions were 220776 positions.

 

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures:   PVC2409 contract futures showed an obvious upward trend in early trading on Monday, and the market showed a reduced position, in which the trading was 25.5% flat compared with 23.6% flat, and the increase in short level made the futures price show a certain upward performance. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) is still downward, although the disk has gone up, but only in view of the small rise from low to upward, the overall fluctuation range has not changed much compared with the previous week. The candle chart shows a positive pillar with a long shadow line, and as a whole, the two markets cannot be guided by fundamentals in the short term, so the fluctuation of futures prices or continue to test the scope of the early stage. Continue to observe the performance in the range of 5850-5980.

 

Spot:    the spot market at the beginning of the week did not show obvious price changes, although some areas tentatively rose slightly, but there is a certain amount of room for profit. PVC fundamentals, calcium carbide prices slightly down 50 yuan / ton, and Taixing Xinpu VCM unit weekly pricing reduced to factory 4900-5000 acceptance, cost port support has been weakened. PVC supply and demand level is still not good, enterprises and middlemen have a certain shipping pressure, the spot market began to actively apply for warehouse receipts transactions, in order to transfer sales difficulties. At present, there is no guiding policy news at the macro level, so the overall performance of the Chinese market is poor. In the outer disk, international oil prices closed higher, but fell on the weekly line as Israel's retaliatory strike against Iran appeared to be limited, reducing concerns about the broader regional conflict. On the whole, the trend of narrow consolidation of the PVC spot market continues in the short term.

 

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	April nineteenth	April 22nd	Rate of change
	V2409 collection	5885	5915	30
	Average spot price in East China	5555	5590	35
	Average spot price in South China	5605	5605	0
	PVC2409 basis difference	-330	-325	5
	V2501 collection	6030	6058	28
	V2409-2501 close	-145	-143	2
	PP2409 collection	7650	7626	-24
	Plastic L2409	8464	8462	-2
	V--PP basis difference	-1765	-1711	54
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2579	-2547	32

 

China PVC Index:     according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China calcium Carbide PVC rose 17.78% to 5562.35 on April 22, up 0.321%. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5824.37, down 10.36, with a range of 0.178%. The calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index decreased, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 262.02.

 

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	4.19 warehouse orders	4.22 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,159	2,159	0
	Large-scale reserve	240	240	0
	Guangzhou materials	1,090	1,090	0
	The central reserve is near the port	118	118	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	711	711	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	1,796	1,796	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	396	396	0
	Shanghai Zhongyuan Sea	471	471	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	929	929	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang 837	60	60	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	1,496	1,496	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	784	784	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Shanghai-Hong Kong logistics	382	382	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,682	4,773	91
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	4,686	5,774	1,088
Polyvinyl chloride	Pinghu Huarui	1,053	1,053	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	184	184	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	4,001	4,001	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	518	518	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	379	379	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	150	150	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,560	1,560	0
PVC subtotal		24,724	25,903	1,179
Total		24,724	25,903	1,179

 

PVC long bears hold the list of bulls:

The information provided in this report is for reference only.