Daily review of urea: International prices continue to fall, export sentiment is more cautious (April 22)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on April 22 was 2,256.64, a decrease of 6.82 from last Friday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.30% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.72%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR409 contract is 2070, the highest price is 2084, the lowest price is 2031, the settlement price is 2056, and the closing price is 2045. The closing price is 38 lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 1.82% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2031-2084; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 175; the 09 contract has increased its position by 7195 lots today, and so far, it has held 245453 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market price dropped slightly, the positive export situation was not obvious for the time being, the market atmosphere was deadlocked, and company quotations were loose and consolidated downward.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,200 - 2,260 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,210 - 2,250 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,200 - 2,350 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles stabilized at 2,230 - 2,250 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,080 - 2,250 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,320 - 2,370 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China fell to 2,200 - 2,210 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,200 - 2,500 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers have received a large number of orders in the early stage, but the current orders are still acceptable. They have more cash in advance received in the early stage. Shipping is steady, and the quotations are firm and stable. In terms of the market, export news continues to ferment, but the current international prices are low and there is limited arbitrage space for Chinese companies to export goods. Therefore, most companies have low willingness to export, cautious emotions, and the market operation is deadlocked. On the supply side, Nissan continues to decline, coupled with companies continuing to move to warehouses. The current supply side is positive. This week, Yankuang Xinjiang and Yangmeifeng are happy to store maintenance plans, but some early parking companies are also resuming production this week. Daily production will increase during the week. In terms of demand, farmers have begun to use fertilizer in southern rice areas, and they have been stocked and purchased sporadically; the start of industrial compound fertilizer factories has increased significantly, and the demand for replenishment just needs still exists, and the industrial demand is relatively stable.

On the whole, the current urea market operators are more cautious when viewing export news, their emotions are stable and their emotions are stable. China's demand is steadily following up, and international prices continue to fall. It is expected that the urea market will consolidate and prices will consolidate in a short period of time.