Methanol: Futures market surged higher and fell back. Spot prices continued to increase

On April 19, the methanol market price index was 2408.14, up 28.89 from yesterday, up 1.21% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on April 18:

China's CFR ranges from US $306 to US $310 per ton, up US $2 per ton
Us FOB 102-103 cents per gallon, up 3 cents per gallon
Southeast Asia CFR 341342USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 307-308 euros / ton, down 5 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2300-2340 (20), North Route: 2240-2280 (40), Lunan: 2550 (0), Henan: 2480 (20), Shanxi: 2320-2480 (0), Port: 2690-2735 (25)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 210-310 (0amp 0), Northern Route-Southern Shandong 340-370 (0max 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 240-300 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwestern Shandong 240-290 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market price is adjusted in a narrow range, the futures market is rising and falling, and the port spot market price is adjusted with the market. At present, the overall supply pressure in the Chinese market is not great, and the manufacturers' price-raising mentality still exists. Downstream rigid demand is dominated by transactions, and some operators have an obvious wait-and-see mood for the future. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been raised in a narrow range, with the quotation on the southern line around 2210-2220 yuan / ton, and the price on the northern line around 2240-2280 yuan / ton, with a low-end increase of 40 yuan / ton, and the futures market fluctuates at a high level, driving the market operators to maintain a high quotation. In addition, the enthusiasm of some downstream to enter the market to replenish the stock is OK, and under the support of little supply pressure, the market quotation position in the region is high, and we need to pay attention to the maintenance of the equipment in the field in the later stage. The market price in Shandong, the main consumer area, was adjusted in a narrow range, with 2550 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2550-2600 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. Yesterday, the enthusiasm of downstream replenishment in the market was not high, the driving force of manufacturers' quotation was insufficient, and the market trading atmosphere cooled slightly. The market quotation in North China has been raised narrowly. Hebei quotation is 2430-2480 yuan / ton today. The futures market trend is strong, which has a certain positive support for the Chinese market. Shanxi quotes 2320-2450 yuan / ton today, maintaining yesterday. With the rapid increase in early prices, downstream operators follow up more cautiously, and the market trading atmosphere has weakened.

Port market: methanol futures volatility is strong today. Spot month in the rigid demand negotiations; long-term unilateral high shipments, arbitrage and exchange buying, multi-contract negotiations, the basis stabilized slightly. The overall transaction throughout the day is not bad. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / 4: 2665-2690, base difference 05: 90, base difference: 2625-2650, base difference: 05: 50, basis: 0990, transaction price: 2585-2615, base difference: 05: 12, base difference: 189pm: 0955, transaction price: 2555-2575, basis difference: 09pm: 25.

Future forecast: recently, the overall inventory pressure in the Chinese market is not great, and with the smooth shipment of manufacturers in the early stage, the quotations of most Chinese enterprises have been raised under the support of low inventory pressure, and with the approach of the May Day holiday, there is a certain reserve demand in the downstream market, coupled with the current low pressure on the supply of negotiable goods in the port area, the supply side is still favorable to the market. On the demand side, at present, the main downstream market starts to maintain a relatively high position, and the overall demand for methanol is good. At present, next week is the last week before May Day, and there is still a rigid demand for stock downstream, but taking into account the general profit performance of the overall industry downstream, and due to the rapid increase in previous prices, some operators hold certain resistance to high-priced sources of goods, and it is expected that methanol market prices will be high next week, but in the later stage, we still need to pay attention to coal prices, the landing of spring inspection by various manufacturers and the follow-up of downstream demand.