Daily Review of Urea: Export news continues to ferment, boosting the trading atmosphere in the field (April 18)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on April 18 was 2,238.00, an increase of 21.77 from yesterday, a month-on-month increase of 0.98% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.09%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of urea UR409 contract is 2050, the highest price is 2093, the lowest price is 2030, the settlement price is 2062, and the closing price is 2036. The closing price has increased by 32 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 1.60% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2030-2093; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 164; the 09 contract has reduced its position by 20809 lots today, and so far, the position has been held by 242337 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, the price of urea in China rose. Export news boosted the market mentality. Manufacturers 'new orders increased significantly, and the market rose, and the factory's price was immediately raised.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China rose to 2,200 - 2,260 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,160 - 2,240 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China rose to 2,200 - 2,300 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles rose to 2,190 - 2,220 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,060 - 2,250 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,310 - 2,370 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,140 - 2,150 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China rose to 2,170 - 2,500 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers continue to implement advance receipts in the early stage, orders are sufficient, new orders are also being followed up, manufacturers are waiting for an increase. In addition, the current supply of large particles is relatively good, and the company's inventory is low. Multiple positive benefits are superimposed, and today's factory quotations are adjusted more. On the market side, market sentiment fluctuations are divorced from the fundamentals of supply and demand. In order to protect China's supply, export control measures are expected to be launched in the near future. There is a strong bullish atmosphere among traders, pushing up the market, and the market has stopped falling and rebounded, with a better short-term trend. In terms of supply, the company's daily production and inventory are still showing a downward trend. At the end of this month, some companies still have maintenance plans one after another. However, some pre-stage parking devices will resume production at the end of the month, and the industry's supply is stable and fluctuated. On the demand side, the downstream sector just needs to continue to advance. Under the influence of market news, purchases show signs of follow-up, but the mood is still mainly cautious, mostly wait-and-see, and waiting for further guidance from the market.

On the whole, the current urea market is experiencing rapid supply, low inventory, equipment maintenance and export news. The market is getting warmer and the industry atmosphere is high. It is expected that urea prices will rise in a short period of time.