Daily Review of Urea: Market transactions are slowing down, operators look at the market rationally (April 17)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on April 17 was 2,216.23, a decrease of 7.86 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.35% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.79%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR409 contract is 2000, the highest price is 2028, the lowest price is 1978, the settlement price is 2004, and the closing price is 2024. The closing price has increased by 45 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 2.27% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 1978-2028; the basis of the 09 contract in Shandong is 156; the 09 contract has increased its position by 4350 lots today, and so far, the position is 263146 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices have been slightly downward. With the support of factories waiting to be ready, the quotations have been temporarily stable, and today's price adjustment has changed little.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China fell to 2,190 - 2,260 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,150 - 2,220 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China rose to 2,160 - 2,300 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2,160 - 2,220 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2020-2220 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,300 - 2,320 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China fell to 2,140 - 2,150 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,100 - 2,500 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, most factories received better orders in the early stage. Currently, with the support of pending orders, the quotations are mostly stable and consolidated, and the overall price adjustment is small. In terms of the market, the market transaction volume has slowed down compared with the previous period. Although the current news on export policies is positive, under the influence of falling international prices, operators have looked at the market rationally. The mood on the market has once again fallen into wait-and-see, and the market has consolidated for a short period of time. In terms of supply, the industry's daily production and inventories are still continuing to decrease. In the later period, Yankuang Xinjiang, Offshore Oil Fudao, and China Salt Anhui Red Sifang still have maintenance plans, and it is expected that the industry's daily production will continue to shrink. On the demand side, downstream procurement is based on the impact of the continuous increase in market quotations in recent days. Most of the purchases of new orders have slowed down, and market transactions have decreased. The current follow-up mentality is cautious and wait-and-see, and the main need to follow up is temporarily.

On the whole, although the urea market currently has good news that export policies and supply sides have declined, due to the decline in international prices and the slowdown in downstream follow-up in China, the market operation has become deadlocked. Urea prices are expected to fluctuate slightly in a short period of time.