Daily Review of Urea: Export policies are loosened, market trading improves (April 15)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on April 15 was 2,223.18, an increase of 76.23 from last Friday, a month-on-month increase of 3.55% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.81%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of urea UR409 contract: 2010, the highest price: 2015, the lowest price: 1981, the settlement price: 1994, the closing price: 1987, the closing price increased by 35 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month increase by 1.79%. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 1981-2015; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong region is 193; the 05 contract has reduced its position by 484 lots today, and so far, it has held 246218 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices rose. Since the weekend, due to the loosening of export policies, market sentiment has been boosted. Companies followed up on purchases, and companies immediately raised their quotations.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China rose to 2,200 - 2,260 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,170 - 2,220 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China rose to 2,180 - 2,300 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles rose to 2,180 - 2,220 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,050 - 2,220 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,300 - 2,360 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China rose to 2,190 - 2,200 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,070 - 2,450 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, factory transactions in mainstream areas improved significantly over the weekend, with an increase in factory orders. Coupled with the support of orders pending in the early stage, most manufacturers are currently willing to raise prices. Quotes have risen firmly, and new orders in the market have improved. On the market side, under the influence of the loosening of export policies last weekend, the pessimism of industry operators has warmed up and the enthusiasm for market procurement has increased. However, current international prices are still in a downward trend. China's export situation has not been good yet, and exports are still difficult. On the supply side, the number of equipment troubleshooting is increasing, and Nissan is showing a downward trend, but it still maintains high operation, and the supply and demand side is relatively loose in a short period of time. On the demand side, the agricultural rice areas should appropriately make up warehouses and prepare fertilizers, and follow up on bargain hunting; the operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer factories has stabilized, demand is not sustainable, and the demand is relatively stable, so appropriate follow-up and replenishment should be maintained.

On the whole, the current urea market has been affected by the loosening of export policies, and the market has improved slightly. However, amid the atmosphere of falling international prices, goods exports are still weak. It is expected that the urea market price will increase slightly in the short term.