Methanol: Futures market fluctuations are mainly dominated by spot market stability and small movements

On April 11, the methanol market price index was 2299.36, up 6.16 from yesterday, or 0.27% higher than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

On April 11, methanol closed:

China CFR 295-304USD / ton, down US $2 / tonne
Us FOB 99-100cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asian CFR 341-342USD / ton, up US $2.00 / tonne

European FOB 313-314 euros / ton, up 0.25 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2230-2250 (0), North Route: 2100-2120 (20), Lunan: 2400-2440 (0), Henan: 2360-2370 (10), Shanxi: 2210-2290 (0), Port: 25602585 (- 5)

Freight:

Northern Route-210-300 (- 10amp 20), Northern Route-Southern Shandong 290-310 (0amp 0), Southern Line-Northern Shandong 230-280 (- 10max Muhammad 10), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 180-220 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market price is arranged in a narrow range, the futures market is volatile, the overall performance of the Chinese market is general, and the trading in the downstream market is still dominated by rigid demand. specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are adjusted in a narrow range. The quotation on the south line is around 2120 yuan / ton, the price on the north line is around 2100-2120 yuan / ton, and the low end is increased by 20 yuan / ton. the market transaction atmosphere in the region is good and enters next week. There is a maintenance plan for some devices in the market in the region, and the supply side may store some support, and we need to pay attention to the maintenance of the equipment in the field in the later stage. The market price in Shandong, the main consumer area, does not fluctuate much, with 2400-2440 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2380-2410 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. At present, the enthusiasm of picking up goods downstream is not high, and the transaction only maintains rigid demand. North China market quotation arrangement is mainly, Hebei quotation 2300-2350 yuan / ton today, maintain yesterday, enterprise inventory remains low, supply-side mentality slightly support, Shanxi quotation today 2210-2290 yuan / ton, low-end stable, methanol enterprise inventory to maintain low non-depot pressure, and methanol futures trend is strong, boost operators' price mentality, manufacturers are not willing to adjust prices.

Port market: methanol futures range volatility today. Spot selling is limited, rigid demand procurement. Early forward arbitrage and exchange offer are dominant, with a slightly stronger basis; shipments increase in the afternoon, and the basis is slightly weaker. The overall deal was average. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2575-2580, base spread 05: 60; transaction 4: 2570-2575; base difference: 05: 60; 62; transaction: 2560-2575; base difference: 05: 51; 55: 55; transaction: 2520-2535; base difference: 05: 8: 12.

Forecast in the future: after entering next week, there are still some units planned to stop in the field, the 1.7 million-ton plant in Anhui is planned to be inspected, the 2 million plant in Jiutaituo County is planned to be overhauled for 10-14 days next week, and the Donghua 600000 methanol plant is planned to be overhauled. Local supply is expected to be tightened, but considering the recent weak fluctuations in the coal market, the profits of coal-to-methanol enterprises are OK. Under the support of high profits, we do not rule out the possibility that some manufacturers may delay the maintenance plan. At present, the overall profit performance of the downstream market is general, and the raw material inventory of some manufacturers maintains a high position, and the overall demand for methanol is general. At present, under the interweaving of good and bad, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price will be adjusted in a narrow range, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the coal price, the landing of the spring inspection of various manufacturers and the follow-up of downstream demand.