Daily review of urea: Local fertilizer preparation for farmers follows up and the market situation fluctuates slightly (April 11)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on April 11 was 2,147.86, a decrease of 2.73 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.13% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.08%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the urea UR409 contract is 1893, the highest price is 1916, the lowest price is 1877, the settlement price is 1895, and the closing price is 1882. The closing price is 6 lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 0.32% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 1877-1916; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 198; the 05 contract has increased its position by 28884 lots today, and so far, it has held 280350 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices continued to stabilize and decline. Most of the company's quotations remained stable and firm, and some quotations were slightly lowered. The market conditions were operating in a volatile manner.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,120 - 2,210 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,060 - 2,120 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,060 - 2,300 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2,080 - 2,170 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 1,950 - 2,160 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,220 - 2,260 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,090 - 2,100 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,070 - 2,450 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, when manufacturers executed more pending orders, corporate inventories dropped slightly, factory new orders decreased, and orders returned to a weak trend. Under the support of short-term pending orders, they were more optimistic about prices and prices were stable and consolidated. In terms of the market, the market continues to lack motivation to chase high prices, and the market is weak and downward. The follow-up atmosphere of trading has slowed down compared with the previous period, and the market atmosphere is flat and wait-and-see. In terms of supply, equipment failures in the industry have increased recently, and industry supply has declined slightly, which has provided urea price support to a certain extent, and the overall supply continues to operate at a high level. On the demand side, agriculture is in the fertilizer preparation period, and agriculture is just in need of follow-up procurement and fertilizer preparation; industrial demand is weakening, and downstream compound fertilizer factories are affected by the slowdown in shipment, and their intention to purchase raw materials is weak, and they continue to maintain a small amount of goods that are just needed., follow-up is limited.

On the whole, the current supply and demand in the urea market are still showing a loose trend. Market follow-up has slowed down compared with the previous period. Agricultural demand has followed up, and the market decline is limited. It is expected that the urea market price will stabilize and fluctuate in a short period of time.