Daily Review of Urea: Market shipments have dropped, and companies are ready to support their quotations remain stable (April 10)

China Urea Price Index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on April 10 was 2,150.59, which was the same as yesterday, down 17.88% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the urea UR409 contract is 1860, the highest price is 1909, the lowest price is 1860, the settlement price is 1888, and the closing price is 1907. The closing price has increased by 53 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 2.86% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 1860-1909; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 173; the 05 contract has increased its position by 15268 lots today, and so far, it has held 251466 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, the price of urea in China has stabilized. The number of new orders from manufacturers has decreased significantly compared with previous days. The current quotations are mostly stable.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,120 - 2,210 yuan/ton. Prices in East China are stable at 2,060 - 2,130 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,060 - 2,300 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2,120 - 2,200 yuan/ton. Prices in North China are stable at 1,950 - 2,160 yuan/ton. Prices in South China have stabilized at 2,220 - 2,260 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,090 - 2,100 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,070 - 2,450 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, market orders have dropped in recent days compared with previous days, and downstream follow-up has not been as expected. Supported by orders from manufacturers, the quotations are firm and stable, and there is no intention to lower them. Some companies continue to increase their quotations, but the overall magnitude is small. In terms of the market, the market trading atmosphere has weakened as prices rise. In addition, international news has simultaneously affected the atmosphere of the Chinese market. Most operators have a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and the market has maintained large stability and small movements. On the supply side, the industry's Nissan dropped slightly. Some devices are still undergoing maintenance this month. The industry's Nissan is expected to decline, and the current starting level has dropped slightly. On the demand side, procurement is mostly cautious and wait-and-see, and the market lacks motivation to chase prices. Although some industrial downstream compound fertilizer factories have improved, most of them are mainly high-nitrogen fertilizers. In addition, production has been reduced, industry start-up has declined, and procurement of urea is poor. Only maintain a small amount of on-demand follow-up.

On the whole, the current urea market volume has dropped compared with the previous few days. Companies 'quotations have been firm under the support of waiting to go. Some companies have stopped for maintenance, and the market atmosphere has weakened. It is expected that the urea market price will be stable and weak in a short period of time.