Analysis of soda ash market
Today, China's soda ash market is in operation. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Northwest China is now 1,500 - 1,650 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,550 - 1,700 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Southwest China is 1,800 - 1,950 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 1,900 - 2,100 yuan/ton; the installation start-up of individual soda ash enterprises has decreased, and the market start-up has declined significantly, but the follow-up of new orders is still weak, and manufacturers 'inventories continue to be high; Procurement in the downstream market remains in demand, and there is great pressure for high-priced transactions. Prices in some areas have been adjusted, and the soda ash market is operating weakly.
Futures dynamics
According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2409, the main contract for soda ash, on April 9, was 1895 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1919 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.73% within the day. The intraday high was 1924 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1865 yuan/ton, with a total position of 677197 lots, a month-on-month +17522 lots.
Today, the main contract for soda ash continues to rise. Recently, there have been many disturbances on the supply side, and output has dropped significantly. And on the basis of the current sharp split between light and heavy output and inventory ratios, the market may begin to worry about the recurrence of the subsequent light soda replenishment market. In addition, more new ignitions have been added to photovoltaic glass recently, and the demand for high-quality soda ash may continue to increase. On the basis of ongoing supply-side maintenance, demand growth has led to high market sentiment, but the supply-demand relationship has not actually reversed yet. Spot market prices have not yet increased. There is a great pressure to continue upward after futures prices rise. Focus on the impact of further upstream and downstream actions on short-term supply-demand relations. In addition, macro sentiment has gradually warmed up recently, and the entry layout of macro funds may form certain support for commodity prices.
market outlook
With the decrease in installation starts for individual enterprises, the overall supply has not yet broken the supply-demand relationship; however, downstream enterprises are mostly bearish on the future outlook. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing, market transactions are poor, low-priced supplies continue to flow into the market, and soda ash market prices are expected to be adjusted in a narrow range, and the market may be dominated by shocks.
