Daily Review of Urea: The number of bids for printing contracts has shrunk and the international market has weakened (April 9)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on April 9 was 2,150.59, an increase of 6.36 from yesterday, a month-on-month increase of 0.30% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.59%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of urea UR409 contract is 1846, the highest price is 1868, the lowest price is 1834, the settlement price is 1854, the closing price is 1863, the closing price is 38 lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 2.00% month-on-month, and the fluctuation range throughout the day is 1834-1868; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 207; the 05 contract has increased its position by 40879 lots today, and so far, it has held 236198 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices continued to increase steadily and moderately. Manufacturers 'quotations were consolidated, with a small range and mostly stabilizing.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China rose to 2,120 - 2,210 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,060 - 2,130 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,070 - 2,300 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,160 - 2,200 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 1,950 - 2,160 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,220 - 2,260 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,090 - 2,100 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China rose to 2,070 - 2,450 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, the transaction volume of new orders from manufacturers dropped today, and there is still a short period of support for orders to be issued. Currently, shipments are not under pressure, and factory quotations have mostly remained stable. Some quotations have continued to increase. Some companies 'quotations have lowered slightly, and the market has been consolidated and running. In terms of the market, China's market bottomed out after the holiday. It began to be influenced by the news today. The market's follow-up slowed down. Trading sentiment in the Chinese market became loose and the market atmosphere became deadlocked. In terms of supply, the industry's Nissan continues to maintain a high level, and supply still maintains a high level of more than 80%. On the demand side, the follow-up of market demand shows signs of slowing down. Downstream compound fertilizer factories are not moving well, and the market is weak and difficult to retreat. Currently, stock reductions are mainly focused, and follow-up on the purchase of raw materials is limited. On the international front, the number of printed labels has been halved, and the international market has weakened, simultaneously affecting the Chinese market, causing pressure on China's exports in the later period.

On the whole, the current urea companies have a firm mentality under the support of waiting, the downstream has difficulty in continuing to follow up, and the market rebound is limited. Coupled with the emotional impact of international labeling, it is expected that the urea market price will remain slightly higher and then remain stable in the short term.