[Soda ash]4.8 Soda ash Daily Review: Soda ash prices are weak and stable, companies are under great shipping pressure

Analysis of soda ash market

Today, China's soda ash market is operating weakly and steadily. As of now, the price of light soda ash in Southwest China is between 1,800 - 1,950 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,900 - 2,100 yuan/ton. The overall supply of soda ash market is relatively stable, and the market supply remains high; Downstream companies are still in a strong wait-and-see attitude, and most of them maintain just need to purchase. The market sentiment for stocking is still weak. The pressure for order shipments from soda factories is high, the market transaction atmosphere is still light, and the pressure for high-priced soda ash shipments is high.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2409, the main contract for soda ash, on April 8, was 1840 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1890 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.42% within the day. The intraday high was 1893 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1812 yuan/ton, with a total position of 659675 lots, a month-on-month +33900 lots.

Today, the main contract for soda ash has increased significantly. The performance of the spot market is still average, but supply side disturbances have been frequent recently, and the latest weekly output has dropped below 700,000 tons. Moreover, news of a short repair of a production line in the northwest factory was again reported today. Because it has a large production capacity and is one of its main production lines for light soda output, based on the current sharp split in the ratio of light and heavy output, the market may be starting to worry about the recurrence of the subsequent light soda replenishment market. In addition, more new ignitions have been added to photovoltaic glass recently, and the demand for high-quality soda ash may continue to increase. On the basis of ongoing supply-side maintenance, demand growth has led to high market sentiment. However, the supply-demand relationship has not actually reversed yet. After prices rebound to a high level, they may also face hedging pressure. In the short term, we need to pay attention to whether changes in the supply-demand relationship are enough to change the market. Short-term trend.

market outlook

During the week, some soda ash manufacturers maintained reduced production, and the overall start-up and output were expected to decline significantly. However, the overall supply still did not break the supply and demand relationship; and affected by the mentality of the downstream market, there was pressure on the transaction of new soda ash orders, and the soda factory received new orders. Poor performance, soda ash prices may remain weak in the short term. However, follow-up upstream maintenance plans still exist, while photovoltaic glass has many ignition plans in the near future. Demand is expected to increase again, and speculation may appear in the middle and lower reaches. The future outlook needs to pay attention to whether a new round of mismatch will emerge after supply reductions and demand increases.