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Polyethylene PE: The pace of petrochemical increases remains unchanged, spot prices have risen, and transactions have been slow to follow up after the increase

82,658
April 8, 2024, 5:09 PM

Sinopec Inventories: The polyolefin inventory of the two oils was 885,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from yesterday.

Shenhua auction statistics: Today's auction volume was 1050 tons, and the transaction volume was 710 tons. The auction transaction rate was 67.62%, down 27.14% from yesterday's 94.76%.

plate number

storage points

auction volume

trading volume

Starting price

trading range

transaction rate

7042

Baotou Coal Chemical Industry Warehouse

100

100

8250

8310

100.00%

7042

Tongdayuan

300

300

8300

8390

100.00%

7042

Ningmei Wuhan Wutieku

300

10

8220

8220

3.33%

7042

Ningmei Zhejiang Jianfengku

50

0

8360

-

0.00%

7042

Ningmei Qingzhou Sinotrans Warehouse

300

300

8250

8260-8270

100.00%

line total

1050

710

 

 

67.62%

 

 

PE spot market analysis: Today, China's PE market continued its upward trend. The increase of various varieties ranged from 20 to 100 yuan/ton, and the overstatement of individual goods and resources exceeded 100 yuan/ton. In terms of price: China's linear mainstream prices range from 8,200 to 8,580 yuan/ton, high-pressure prices range from 9,250 to 9,500 yuan/ton, low-pressure film materials range from 8,300 to 8,700 yuan/ton, and low-pressure wire drawing range from 8,280 to 8,800 yuan/ton. During the day, the spot market experienced twists and turns. Futures were once green in early trading, which suppressed market confidence. Traders were more motivated to ship, and there was increased room for negotiations on some real orders. As the market pulled up, the second offer within the day increased slightly, and the overall price center of gravity remained higher. Petrochemical companies were significantly removed from warehouses yesterday, and the current inventory level is 885,000 tons, which is still high. The ex-factory prices of the two oils are still increasing, with coal companies rising linearly by 10-50 yuan/ton, and the cost boost is still obvious. Traders waited and saw shipments, but after the increase, new price transactions were slow to follow up, and the overall inquiry atmosphere was worse than yesterday.

 

PE spot trend forecast: In terms of raw materials: crude oil will further set a new high, and the oil distribution market will enter the US$86 -95 region. The shift in the focus of raw materials has driven up the cost of polyethylene production. Petrochemical policy: Currently, petrochemicals continue to go to the warehouse. Although the performance of the two cities is still acceptable, major regions are still moving upward, and the cost of on-site supply is strongly supported. Supply: Lianyungang Petrochemical, Jiutai, Zhongke Refining and Chemical, Hainan Refining and Chemical, and Zhejiang Petrochemical have been suspended until April and May. Recently, new units such as Zhongyuan Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical have continued to be suspended for maintenance, and the market supply continues to shrink. In terms of demand, the overall downstream demand is relatively stable, with small overall variables. Under the comprehensive influence, it is expected that the PE market will remain a volatile and strong market, but there is relatively limited room for continued upward. Focus on the market trend and spot transactions.

Mainstream quotation in PE market: yuan/ton

varieties

regional

April 7

April 8

rise and fall

linear

North China

8300-8350

8330-8350

30/0

East China

8200-8330

8200-8350

0/20

South China

8330-8550

8330-8580

0/30

high-pressure membrane

North China

9200-9250

9250-9280

50/30

East China

9200-9500

9250-9500

50/0

South China

9300-9500

9350-9500

50/0

low-pressure membrane

North China

8200-8450

8300-8450

100/0

East China

8350-8650

8400-8700

50/50

South China

8300-8450

8400-8580

100/130

low pressure wire drawing

North China

8170-8550

8280-8550

110/0

East China

8450-8650

8450-8700

0/50

South China

8500-8750

8500-8800

0/50

 

Analysis of PE futures: On April 8, the opening price of L2409 was 8325, the highest price was 8384, the lowest price was 8313, the position was 275325 lots, the settlement price was 8352, yesterday's settlement: 8345, the increase: 7, and the daily trading volume: 150886 lots.


 

China's PE Index: According to Tdd-global's data, on April 8, China's LLDPE spot index was 8357, up 14, or 0.17%; the LDPE film spot index was 9355, up 30, or 0.32%; the HDPE spot index was 8509, up 53, or 0.63%.