Methanol: Futures market fluctuated and fell back, and the spot market adjusted within a narrow range

On April 8, the methanol market price index was 2,294.28, an increase of 2.31 from the previous working day and an increase of 0.1% month-on-month.

External disk dynamics:

Methanol closing on April 5:

China is closed;
US FOB 100-101 cents/gallon, flat;
Southeast Asia CFR 341-342 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton;

European FOB 294.5-295.5 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton.

Today's price summary:

Guanzhong: 2180-2280 (0), North Line:2080-2120 (20), South Shandong:2380-2400 (20), Henan:2310-2330 (-20), Shanxi: 2230-2300 (0), Port:2565-2590 (-35)

Freight:

North Line-Northern Shandong 220-290 (0/-10), North Line-Southern Shandong 290-310 (0/-10), South Line-Northern Shandong 240-280 (10/0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 170-230 (0/0)

Spot market: Today, the methanol market has adjusted within a narrow range. There is still some positive support for the supply side in some regions of China, but the futures market has fluctuated and fell back. On-site operators still have a wait-and-see attitude towards the future outlook. The overall market transaction atmosphere is limited. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are mainly sorted out. The southern line quotation is around 2310 yuan/ton, and the northern line quotation is around 2,080 - 2,120 yuan/ton. Currently, follow-up demand in the downstream market is limited, and the shipment situation of manufacturers is general. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the maintenance of equipment in the field. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, have been adjusted within a narrow range, with 2,380 - 2,420 yuan/ton in southern Shandong and 20 yuan/ton at the low-end. There is no significant fluctuation in demand in the region, and the market atmosphere is still cautious. 2,380 - 2,390 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. The futures market is weakening, and the mentality of operators is more wait-and-see, mainly covering short positions on dips. The market quotations in North China are mainly sorted out. Today's Hebei price is 2,300 - 2,350 yuan/ton. Some downstream operators still have a certain wait-and-see attitude towards the market outlook and are generally enthusiastic about replenishing goods in the market. Shanxi price is 2,230 - 2,300 yuan/ton today, which is stable at the low-end, and terminal demand is flat. Most downstream manufacturers just need to pick up goods. Market transactions are limited. They pay attention to tomorrow's market auctions.

 Aftermarket forecast: Recently, equipment in the Chinese market has been restored one after another, and market supply in some regions has been relatively abundant. In the later period, China's methanol plant overhauls and restarts coexist, and it is difficult to see a significant gap in supply in the spot market. However, as the weather warms up, some traditional downstream markets have started construction or improved, and there may be expectations for improvement on the demand side. In the short term, the current downward trend of the main methanol futures market, which has led to a decline in port spot prices, has put a certain pressure on the Chinese market. The industry still has a certain wait-and-see attitude towards the future outlook. Just as the transaction is completed, it is expected that the methanol market price will adjust within a narrow range in the short term. In the later period, as the arrival of imported ships and cargo in the port increases, the amount of goods available for circulation in the port area may increase. As supply pressure increases, methanol is expected to weaken and fluctuate in the later period, but coal prices need to be paid attention to in the later period. Release status of spring inspections by various manufacturers and follow-up status of downstream demand.