PVC: The downward trend of futures prices has refreshed the previous period. In 2005, positions have been shifted to the month, and the spot market is operating weakly.

79,921

April 8, 2024, 4:35 PM

PVC futures analysis: April 8 V2405 contract opening price: 5765, highest price: 5816, lowest price: 5719, position: 715697, settlement price: 5782, yesterday settlement: 5798, down: 16, daily trading volume: 488785 lots, precipitated capital: 2.908 billion, capital outflow: 63.05 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	April 7th	April 8th	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5470-5550	5450-5540	-20/-10	Send to cash remittance
East China	5540-5630	5520-5620	-20/-10	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5610-5660	5590-5650	-20/-10	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5520-5640	5470-5620	-50/-20	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5500-5540	5500-5540	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5440-5600	5440-5600	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price range collation, regional price adjustment. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 10-20 yuan / ton in North China, 10-20 yuan / ton in East China, 10-20 yuan / ton in South China, 20-50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, stable in Central China and stable in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises began to reduce the ex-factory price by 20-50 yuan / ton, but there are still some enterprises wait and see price stability. Futures are arranged in a narrow range and low before the low point is refreshed, the operation of the spot market is slightly weak, and the actual transaction is not good in the morning. At present, spot price and spot price coexist, including East China basis offer 05 contract-(250-280), South China 05 contract-(200), North 05 contract-(480-500), Southwest 05 contract-(250-370). Although the two quotation methods coexist, the transaction in the spot market is light, part of the price offer is slightly reduced, the high-price supply is difficult to close the transaction, the transaction is mainly concentrated in the low range, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high.

Futures point of view: PVC2405 contract after the start of early trading futures prices opened straight down, and the lowest point of 5719 refresh Prophase, the lowest point of futures repair, late afternoon futures prices back above 5800. 2405 contracts range from 5719 to 5816 throughout the day, with a spread of 97. 05. The contract reduced its position by 20206 hands and has held 715697 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 5950, with 441060 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Spot: period the weak operation of the two cities makes the spot market shipping rhythm is not good, today's offer upstream factory part of the reduction, and the enthusiasm of regional merchants is higher, but the transaction is light, downstream enterprises hang order position is generally low, even if there is a transaction is mainly rigid demand, PVC period is now the weakness of the two cities. PVC fundamentals VCM monomer, Taixing Xinpu VCM downgrade 50 today factory 5050-5100 acceptance, weekly pricing. At present, it is difficult to find various factors from the fundamentals, although the low valuation is the consensus of the current industrial chain, but the lack of guidance in the current two cities is not even as expected, the high point can not exceed the previous high position. The outer disk employment report released on Friday showed that the US labor market was strong: non-farm payrolls rose 303000 in March, the biggest monthly increase in nearly a year. Payrolls were revised up by 22000 in January and February. The unemployment rate fell slightly to 3.8% in March as expected, causing investors to expect the Fed to cut interest rates in June or July, driving the dollar stronger. On the whole, there are no obvious factors in the internal and external market, the PVC spot market is still dominated by low and narrow finishing.

Futures: & the low of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract futures price appeared before the refresh of the lowest point of 5719, first of all, from the transaction point of view, the short opening of 22.2% compared with 20.7% more, the disk showed a state of reducing positions, on the one hand, the 05 contract began to gradually change positions over time, on the other hand, the continued weak operation pattern led to the rapid disappearance of the rebound expectation of the 05 contract. The technical level shows that the three-track openings of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) all turn downward, and the trend of MACD dead forks at the daily level is obvious. At present, PVC fundamentals and macro factors are not enough to guide, so the current operation of the two cities may still maintain a horizontal state, and continue to observe the operating range of the low range between 5750 and 5850 in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	April 3rd	April 8th	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5768	5805	37
	Average spot price in East China	5570	5570	0
	Average spot price in South China	5610	5620	10
	PVC2405 basis difference	-198	-235	-37
	V2409 collection	5905	5950	45
	V2405-2409 close	-137	-145	-8
	PP2405 collection	7597	7589	-8
	Plastic L2405 collection	8319	8339	20
	V--PP basis difference	-1829	-1784	45
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2551	-2534	17

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index fell 13.04 or 0.234% to 5553.34 on April 8. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5854.22, up 2.06, with a range of 0.035%, while the calcium carbide index decreased, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 300.88.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	4.3 warehouse order volume	4.8 warehouse order quantity	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	276	276	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	276	276	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	490	919	429
	Shanghai Zhongyuan Sea	190	190	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	300	729	429
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	700	700	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	280	280	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	2,402	2,402	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	1,505	1,505	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	0	64	64
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	2,515	2,515	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	198	198	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	200	200	0
PVC subtotal		8,650	9,143	493
Total		8,650	9,143	493