Methanol: China's market is stable and small players have obvious wait-and-see attitude

On April 7, the methanol market price index was 2,291.91, an increase of 0.96 from the previous working day and an increase of 0.04% month-on-month.

External disk dynamics:

Methanol closing on April 5:

China is closed;
US FOB 100-101 cents/gallon, flat;
Southeast Asia CFR 341-342 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton;

European FOB 294.5-295.5 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton.

Today's price summary:

Guanzhong: 2180-2250 (0), North Line:2060-2120 (0), South Shandong:2360-2400 (-20), Henan:2330 (10), Shanxi: 2230-2300 (0), Port:2600-2615 (10)

Freight:

North Line-Northern Shandong 220-300 (10/30), North Line-Southern Shandong 290-320 (30/-10), South Line-Northern Shandong 230-280 (0/20), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 170-230 (-10/20)

Spot market: Today, methanol market prices adjusted within a narrow range. There is no futures market guidance. Chinese market quotes have limited fluctuations. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is listed. Downstream players are not enthusiastic about entering the market to replenish stocks. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are mainly sorted out. The price for the southern line is around 2130 yuan/ton, and the price for the northern line is around 2,060 - 2,120 yuan/ton. Currently, there is not much pressure on the inventory of manufacturers in the northwest region. Under this support, manufacturers save more prices and pay attention to the new prices issued by manufacturers tomorrow. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, have been adjusted within a narrow range, with 2,360 - 2,400 yuan/ton in southern Shandong, with a reduction of 20 yuan/ton at the low-end. The main methanol futures have not yet opened. There is a strong wait-and-see mood on the market, and the transaction atmosphere is average. In northern Shandong, 2,380 - 2,390 yuan/ton, the low-end increase is 20 yuan/ton, and the downstream is mainly consumed, and the market transaction atmosphere is limited. The market quotations in North China are mainly sorted out. Today, the price in Hebei is 2,300 - 2,350 yuan/ton. The company currently has no inventory pressure, the mentality of the manufacturers is relatively strong, and the enthusiasm of downstream entering the market to replenish goods is still good. The price in Shanxi is 2,230 - 2,300 yuan/ton today, which is stable at the low end. The main methanol futures have not yet opened today, and the market trend lacks guidance, which makes the market wait-and-see attitude strong and the market transaction atmosphere is limited.

 Market outlook: Recently, the pre-maintenance equipment of China's plants has been restored one after another. Jiutai's 2 million-ton coal-to-methanol plant resumed full production yesterday. In the later period, the plant is scheduled to be overhauled for about 10 days starting from April 21. Yulin Kaiyue's 700,000-ton methanol plant has been restarted recently, and the supply in some regions may increase. At present, with the rise in methanol prices, profits of downstream industries have been further compressed, and terminal market demand has not yet performed well. Companies are still in demand for replenishment. At present, the fundamentals of methanol itself are average, and the methanol market price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term. However, in the later period, we still need to pay attention to coal prices, the release of spring inspections by various manufacturers and the follow-up of downstream demand.