Methanol: Futures market growth slows down, spot prices adjust within a narrow range

On April 2, the methanol market price index was 2297.65, up 18.69 from yesterday and 0.82 per cent higher than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on April 1:

China CFR 299-303 US dollars / ton, up 1 US dollars / ton
Us FOB 103104 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asian CFR 339-340 US dollars / ton, down 9 US dollars / ton

Markets are closed in Europe.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2180-2250 (0), North Route: 2080-2120 (0), Lunan: 2390 (10), Henan: 2320-2345 (0), Shanxi: 2230-2300 (70), Port: 2595-2630 (- 10)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 230-300 (0ax 0), North Line-Southern Shandong 310-340 (0max 0), South Line-Northern Shandong 230-290 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 180-230 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol market is adjusted in a narrow range, the increase of futures market slows down, the spot market fluctuates little, the price fluctuation of Chinese market is limited, and the market negotiation atmosphere is poor. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is adjusted in a narrow range, with the quotation on the southern route around 2130 yuan / ton, the low end raised by 10 yuan / ton, and the quotation on the northern line around 2080-2120 yuan / ton. at present, the inventory pressure of manufacturers in the northwest region is not great, and under this support, manufacturers have more positive price mentality, and the situation of factory shipments is OK. The market price in Shandong, the main consumer area, is adjusted in a narrow range, with 2390 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, and the trading atmosphere is OK. Quotations in some regional markets have been raised. Northern Shandong is 2360-2370 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, and there is still a certain amount of inventory to be consumed in the downstream market. It is difficult for operators to have a large amount of replenishment demand, and rigid demand is the main demand. The market quotation in North China has been raised by concussion, and Hebei quotation is 2230-2280 yuan / ton today. The enterprise currently has no inventory pressure, the mentality of manufacturers is relatively strong, and the downstream replenishment enthusiasm is OK. Shanxi quotes 2230-2300 yuan / ton today, and the low end is stable. At present, most methanol manufacturers in Shanxi have no inventory pressure for the time being, and many manufacturers hold the mentality of holding up prices.

Port market: methanol futures are slightly less volatile today. Positive quotation within the month, rigid demand procurement, weak basis; more long-term arbitrage negotiations. The price difference between replacements has narrowed in recent months. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: 2600-2630; spot transaction: 2600-2630, base difference 05 "85max" 92bot 4 deal: 2600-2625, base difference 05x80max 90x 4x deal: 2570-2595, base difference 0552pm 60X 5 deal: 2530-2540, basis difference 05x7pm 10.

& nbsp; future forecast: with the early price rising, today's market growth has slowed down, at present, the overall inventory pressure in the domestic market is not great, to a certain extent, the manufacturers' quotations are maintained at a high level, but at present, the terminal market demand has not increased significantly, the substantial positive support in the market is limited, the industry's confidence in the future is insufficient, the market trading atmosphere is gradually cooling, and some manufacturers in front of Ching Ming Festival may still have a small amount of shipping demand. At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the market is general, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, but in the later stage, we need to pay attention to the coal price, the release of the spring inspection of various manufacturers and the follow-up of downstream demand.