PVC: The opening of the Bollinger Band at the low futures price expands, the change in warehouse volume is small, and the spot range is sorted out

82,423

April 2, 2024, 4:19 PM

PVC futures analysis: April 2 V2405 contract opening price: 5810, highest price: 5833, lowest price: 5778, position: 758563, settlement price: 5804, yesterday settlement: 5798, up: 6, daily trading volume: 517468 lots, precipitated capital: 3.076 billion, capital outflow: 23.17 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	April 1st	April 2nd	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5500-5550	5480-5550	-20/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	5520-5620	5530-5620	10/0	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5590-5640	5590-5650	0/10	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5520-5640	5520-5640	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5500-5540	5500-5540	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5440-5600	5440-5600	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices continue to sort out the range, spot prices fluctuate less. Compared with the valuation, North China fell by 20 yuan / ton, East China rose by 10 yuan / ton, South China rose by 10 yuan / ton, Northeast China was stable, Central China fell by 30 yuan / ton, and Southwest China was stable. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises continued to remain stable, and individual ethylene enterprises even raised 50 yuan / ton slightly. The futures price trend continues to be tested at a low level, with a narrow range fluctuation adjustment, and the spot market trader offers little change compared with yesterday, but it is heard that there is a profit margin of 10-20 yuan / ton in the spot market, and both the spot price and the spot price are available. The low operating point price of the futures price has advantages, including 05 contracts in East China-(250), 05 contracts in South China-(200-220), 05 contracts in North China-(480-500-530). Southwest 05 contract-(220-250). On the whole, the terminal hanging order enthusiasm is not good, cautious wait-and-see-based, the spot market turnover is relatively light.

From the futures point of view: & the night price of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract opens in a narrow range, and the futures price runs above 5800. After the start of morning trading, futures prices fell slightly, falling below the 5800 mark again, and afternoon lows fluctuated in a small range to the end. 2405 contracts range from 5778 to 5833 throughout the day, with a spread of 55.05. The contract has reduced its position by 2692 hands, and has held 758563 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 5933, with 400923 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operation of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract futures continues the mode of low arrangement. First, the volatility range of the futures price continues to be the same as that of the previous period, and the third time shows a narrow fluctuation pattern, low horizontal trading. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) expands, especially the position of the lower rail continues to decline in the weak continuation. From the current time node, it is not conducive to the reversal of the market. The KD line and MACD line at the daily line level still show a dead-fork trend, and the change of the stock volume is always slightly suppressed by short opening, and the short trend is relatively obvious. In the short term, we still maintain the previous point of view, the operation of futures prices continue to observe the performance of the low range of 5770-5850 range.

Spot aspect: Under the current time node, the spot market still presents a lukewarm situation. First of all, the price adjustment is relatively narrow. Secondly, whether the production enterprises or middlemen face the current price changes, the digestion pressure of the spot always exists. Except for the downstream rigid demand procurement part, it is difficult to see a better de-inventory, and the social inventory accumulation is still at a high level. Therefore, weak fundamentals affect the performance of the current highs of the two cities over time. On the outer disk, the United States is closed on good Friday, so there is no comment on crude oil futures for the time being. The spot valuation of benchmark crude oil in the Middle East rose, following the rise in the international crude oil futures market. The spot estimate of Dubai crude oil rose to 87.87 US dollars per barrel, while that of Oman crude oil rose to 87.55 US dollars per barrel. On the whole, the current positive factors of China's PVC spot market are insufficient, it is difficult to support a better price performance, mainly narrow adjustment.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	April 1st	April 2nd	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5816	5793	-23
	Average spot price in East China	5570	5575	5
	Average spot price in South China	5615	5620	5
	PVC2405 basis difference	-246	-218	28
	V2409 collection	5963	5933	-30
	V2405-2409 close	-147	-140	7
	PP2405 collection	7539	7560	21
	Plastic L2405 collection	8275	8293	18
	V--PP basis difference	-1723	-1767	-44
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2459	-2500	-41

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, China calcium Carbide PVC spot index rose 0.52 or 0.009% to 5561.12 on April 2. The ethylene method PVC spot index is 5863.61, up 2.7, the range is 0.046%, the calcium carbide method index rises, the ethylene method index rises, the ethylene method-calcium carbide method index price difference is 302.49.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	4.1 warehouse receipt volume	4.2 warehouse order volume	change
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	0	249	249
	Shanghai Zhongyuan Sea	0	120	120
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	0	129	129
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	0	944	944
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	762	1,362	600
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	0	198	198
PVC subtotal		762	2,753	1,991
Total		762	2,753	1,991