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Polypropylene PP: It is difficult to go up and down, the bulls are weak and the short are annoying, alternate games waiting for new drivers

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April 2, 2024, 3:55 PM

Sinopec inventory: two-oil polyolefin inventory of 800000 tons, down 40, 000 tons from yesterday.

 

PP futures analysis: April 2 PP2405 opening price: 7527, highest price: 7567, lowest price: 7521, position: 298983 lots, settlement price: 7543, yesterday settlement: 7516, up: 27, daily trading volume: 240683 lots.



Mainstream quotation for wire drawing in PP market: yuan / ton

Region

April 1st

April 2nd

Rise and fall

North China

7350-7500

7380-7500

30/0

East China

7480-7630

7480-7550

0/-50

South China

7530-7600

7550-7600

20/0

 

 

PP China spot market analysis: today, China's PP market rose after shock operation, some market offers increased, the price is basically the same in the region yesterday afternoon new price; East China due to Fude is about to restart, some high prices have fallen. The mainstream prices of wire drawing in China range from 7380 to 7600 yuan per ton. The ex-factory prices of the two oil companies are firm and rising, with CNPC Northeast Pipe up by 50 yuan / ton, CNPC Southwest Wire drawing by 50 yuan / ton, and Sinopec in South China and East China by 50-100 yuan / ton. Coal company wire drawing only Jiutai raised 60 yuan / ton, other stable. From the cost point of view, the overall support and promotion role is strong at the beginning of the month. Superimposed since the end of the month upstream parking increment, the supply side is also good. But PP futures push up weak, today's market shock operation, for the spot market driving role weakened. Although traders intend to overreport, the enthusiasm of the terminal to catch up and take the goods is not high, and the new price is mediocre after the rise of the market, mainly through negotiation.


PP spot trend forecast: raw materials: crude oil disk further refresh stage new high, oil distribution disk into the 86-90 dollar area. The center of gravity of the raw material moves upward, which drives the production cost of polypropylene higher. Petrochemical policy: the current petrochemical continues to go to the warehouse, at the beginning of the month, the performance of the two cities is still good, the major regions are still up-regulated, and the supply cost is strongly supported. On the supply side: since late March, there has been an increase in equipment overhaul in China. In April, there are still many devices parking, including Zhejiang Sinopec, Shenhua Baotou and Datang. At the same time, the possibility of operating parking due to cost is not ruled out, and the market supply is expected to be significantly reduced. On the demand side, the overall downstream demand is relatively stable, driving little in the short term. Under the comprehensive influence, the short-term PP market is expected to remain volatile, focusing on the emergence of new drivers.

China's PP index: according to Tudor data, China's PP spot index was 7515 on April 2, stable.

 

China installation parking Summary:

Enterprise name

product line

Production capacity

Parking Duration

departure time

Dalian Petrochemical Corporation

Third line

5

August 2, 2006

To be determined

Wuhan Petrochemical Corporation

Old equipment

12

November 12, 2021

To be determined

Haiguolong oil

First line

20

February 8, 2022

To be determined

Haiguolong oil

Second line

35

April 3, 2022

To be determined

Tianjin Petrochemical Company

First line

6

August 1, 2022

To be determined

Jinxi Petrochemical

Single line

15

February 16, 2023

To be determined

Yanshan Petrochemical

Second line

7

September 18, 2023

To be determined

Shaoxing Sanyuan

New line

30

September 20, 2023

To be determined

Qinghai Salt Lake

Single line

16

October 27, 2023

To be determined

Changzhou Fude

Single line

30

November 1, 2023

To be determined

Jingbo polyolefin

First line

20

November 1, 2023

To be determined

Luoyang Petrochemical

First line

8

November 3, 2023

To be determined

Zhongjing Petrochemical

The first phase and the first line

50

December 5, 2023

To be determined

Hongrun Petrochemical

Single line

45

December 6, 2023

To be determined

Qilu Petrochemical

Single line

7

December 23, 2023

To be determined

Lianhong Xinke

Second line

8

December 30, 2023

To be determined

Fujian Union

Old line

12

January 3, 2024

To be determined

Gold energy chemistry

First line

45

March 8, 2024

To be determined

North China brocade

Old line

6

March 8, 2024

To be determined

Jiutai Group

Single line

32

March 15, 2024

April 15, 2024

Donghua Energy (Ningbo)

The first line of Phase II

40

March 19, 2024

April 8, 2024

Donghua Energy (Ningbo)

Second phase, second line.

40

March 20, 2024

April 8, 2024

Chinese Science Refining and Chemical Industry

First line

35

March 20, 2024

May 20, 2024

Chinese Science Refining and Chemical Industry

Second line

20

March 21, 2024

May 20, 2024

Ningbo Fude

Single line

40

March 24, 2024

April 4, 2024

Jingbo polyolefin

Second line

40

March 26, 2024

April 15, 2024

Quanzhou, Sinochem

Second line

35

March 26, 2024

March 31, 2024

Jingmen petrochemical

Single line

12

March 27, 2024

March 31, 2024

Qinzhou, Guangxi

Single line

20

March 30, 2024

April 1, 2024

Dalian Petrochemical Corporation

Second line

7

March 31, 2024

May 10, 2024

Dalian Petrochemical Corporation

First line

20

March 31, 2024

May 10, 2024

Tianjin Petrochemical Company

Second line

20

April 1, 2024

April 14, 2024

Zhongyuan Petrochemical Company

First line

6

April 1, 2024

To be determined

Dongguan Juzhengyuan

The first line of Phase II

30

April 1, 2024

April 2, 2024

Dongguan Juzhengyuan

Second phase, second line.

30

April 1, 2024

April 2, 2024

Shenhua auction turnover: Shenhua Coal Chemical's auction volume today was 1545 tons, down 31.36% from yesterday; the turnover was 1478 tons, down 22.46% from yesterday, and the turnover rate was 95.66%, up 10.99% from yesterday.