Methanol: The methanol period is now rising simultaneously and the spot market transaction is still good

On April 1, the methanol market price index was 2257.99, up 0.2% from the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on March 29:

China CFR 295-303 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton
Us FOB 103104 cents per gallon, flat
CFR in Southeast Asia: us $348-349 per ton, Ping

European FOB 289.5-290.5 euros / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2180-2230 (30), North Route: 2080-2120 (70), Lunan: 2380 (80), Henan: 2320-2350 (50), Shanxi: 2160-2275 (0), Port: 2605-2620 (0)

Freight:

Northern Route 230-300 (- 20 Universe Mueller 10), Northern Route-Southern Shandong 310-340 (- 30 Maxime 20), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 230-290 (- 10 amp Mueller 10), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 180-230 (- 30max 0)

Spot market: today, methanol market prices fluctuated upward, the futures market returned to the 2500 mark, spot quotations have been raised, the enthusiasm of operators to enter the market has increased, and trading sentiment has warmed up. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been raised by a narrow range, with the quotation on the southern route around 2120 yuan / ton, the northern line around 2080-2120 yuan / ton, the low end up by 70 yuan / ton, and the futures market has stopped falling and rising. At the same time, the inventory pressure of manufacturers in the northwest region is not great at present. Under this support, manufacturers have more psychology of keeping up the price. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, rose synchronously, with 2380 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2360 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, with an increase of 50 yuan / ton at the low end, and the upward trend of futures, which gave a certain boost to the market. In addition, manufacturers' shipments were good last week, and there is not much pressure on manufacturers' inventory at present. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2230-2280 yuan / ton today. The enterprise currently has no inventory pressure, the mentality of manufacturers is relatively strong, and the downstream replenishment enthusiasm is OK. Shanxi quotes 2160-2275 yuan / ton today, and the low end is stable. At present, most methanol manufacturers in Shanxi do not have inventory pressure for the time being, and most manufacturers hold the mentality of holding up prices.

Port market: today, methanol futures are slightly more volatile. The near-end is sold at a price and purchased on demand. Forward part of the unilateral high shipments, arbitrage to pick up the goods, the basis stabilized. The overall transaction throughout the day is not bad. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2610-2625, basis 05x100, base difference 05x100, base difference: 2605-2620, basis difference 05x95, price 105, transaction price: 2560-2585, basis difference 05x5x63, transaction: 2510-2540, basis difference 05x12.

& nbsp Forecast in the future: the price of the main methanol contract will rise instead of falling, boosting the mentality of the operators in the market, the new prices of some Chinese manufacturers have been raised, and the downstream operators are not enthusiastic about entering the market to replenish the stock. In addition, the overall inventory pressure of the enterprise is not great at present. And under the expectation that there are still equipment overhauls in the future, the manufacturers may keep a certain up-price mentality. Later this week, interspersed with the Qingming Festival holiday, some operators may keep a certain stock operation. However, considering the short duration of the holiday and the fact that there is still some inventory to be consumed in the downstream market, it may be difficult for downstream operators to have a large number of replenishment demand, mainly rigid demand. At present, the short-term methanol market price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the coal price, the release of the spring inspection of various manufacturers and the follow-up of downstream demand.