The soda ash market has been adjusted within a narrow range, and the market transactions are light (3.28 soda ash weekly review)
1. Analysis of China's soda ash market
This week, China's soda ash market has adjusted within a narrow range. As of now, the price of light soda ash in China is between 1,800 - 2,000 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 1,900 - 2,200 yuan/ton. During the week, individual companies in the soda ash market stopped for maintenance, and the market supply decreased slightly. The overall start-up remained stable; at the end of the month, the prices of new orders for some companies were undetermined, and the market transaction atmosphere was listed. In addition, the inventory of individual companies increased due to the arrival of imported soda ash in Hong Kong; Demand in the downstream market remained stable, with procurement mainly needed, the market trend was basically stable, and the soda ash market price fluctuated.
In terms of futures, soda ash prices this week generally fluctuated within a narrow range with the market environment. Although there has been a slight reduction on the supply side at present, the overall supply side is still fluctuating within a high level and within a narrow range. The supply-demand relationship has not yet changed. However, the phenomenon of subsequent upstream price stabilization still exists. More unexpected production reductions cannot be ruled out. The decentralization cost support is still strong. When the spot market quotes are relatively stable, it is difficult to break the upper and lower space of futures prices with strong driving forces.
Forecast for next week: The current market starts are basically stable, but some companies in the market have maintenance plans in the later period, and the market supply is expected to decrease; demand remains stable, but due to the impact of imported soda ash, the changes in China's soda supply and demand relationship may not fluctuate much, and the market supply and demand game may continue to maintain stability in the short term.
2. Comparison of market prices of soda ash in regions
Unit: yuan/ton
areas |
specifications |
March 21 |
March 28 |
rise and fall |
previous month |
Northeast China |
light soda ash |
2150 |
2150 |
0 |
0.00% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
2250 |
2250 |
0 |
0.00% |
|
in North China |
light soda ash |
2000 |
2000 |
0 |
0.00% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
2200 |
2200 |
0 |
0.00% |
|
East China |
light soda ash |
2025 |
2025 |
0 |
0.00% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
2050 |
2050 |
0 |
0.00% |
|
central China |
light soda ash |
1900 |
1900 |
0 |
0.00% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
2050 |
1950 |
-100 |
-4.88% |
|
South China |
light soda ash |
2225 |
2225 |
0 |
0.00% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
2350 |
2350 |
0 |
0.00% |
|
southwestern region |
light soda ash |
1925 |
1925 |
0 |
0.00% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
2050 |
2050 |
0 |
0.00% |
|
northwestern region |
light soda ash |
1650 |
1600 |
-50 |
-3.03% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
1725 |
1625 |
-100 |
-5.80% |
3. Soda ash process profit statement
As of March 28 this week, the profit of the combined alkali method was 550 yuan/ton, down 24.0 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of the ammonia-alkali method was 330 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week.
production process |
March 21 |
March 28 |
Weekly ups and downs |
rise and fall |
combined alkali method |
579 |
555 |
-24 |
-4.15% |
ammonia-soda process |
330 |
330 |
0 |
0.00% |
4. Equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises
This week, the soda ash industry started about 88.40 tons, an increase of 0.27% from last week. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week is about 741,000 tons.
List of equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises on March 28, 2024 |
|||
process |
enterprise name |
production capacity |
device condition |
combined alkali method |
Fujian Yaolong |
40 |
Maintenance will start from September 11, 2022, and recovery time will be determined |
Henan Junhua |
60 |
The company will start maintenance on March 15, which is expected to take 6 days |
|
Gansu Jinchang |
20 |
The company began maintenance on March 21, and the recovery time is to be determined |
|
Jinshan, Henan |
390 |
On March 26, some equipment of the company began to be repaired, and the time is expected to be 4 days. |
|
Zhongyan Kunshan |
80 |
On March 28, the company's equipment will start maintenance, which is expected to take 15 days |
|
chlor-alkali process |
Qinghai Fantou |
140 |
On October 28, the company's equipment was reduced and repaired, and the recovery time was to be determined |
Kunlun Jianye |
150 |
On October 28, the company's equipment was reduced and repaired, and the recovery time was to be determined |
|
Shandong Haitian |
150 |
The company will start maintenance on March 15, which is expected to take 15 days |
|
Nanfang Jianye |
60 |
The company began maintenance on March 22, and the recovery time is to be determined |
5. Soda ash manufacturer inventory
The total inventory of Chinese soda ash manufacturers this week was 828,000 tons, compared with around 785,000 tons last week, a month-on-month increase of 43,000 tons, or 5.19%.