Methanol: Futures rebounded slightly, Chinese markets fluctuated within a narrow range

On March 29th, the methanol market price index was 2253.57, down 2.39% from yesterday, down 0.11% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on March 27:

China CFR 293-300USD / ton, down US $3 / tonne
Us FOB 103104 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asian CFR 348-349 USD / ton, up US $8.75 / ton

European FOB 289.5-290.5 euros / ton, down 11.75 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2150-2200 (- 20), North Route: 2010-2040 (0), Lunan: 2300 (0), Henan: 2270-2280 (0), Shanxi: 2160-2240 (0), Port: 2585-2595 (0)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 250-310 (- 10amp 0), Northern Route-Southern Shandong 340-350 (10mp 10), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 240-300 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 210-230 (10max 10)

Spot market: today, methanol market price is weak and volatile, coal price is weak, methanol cost end is not obviously favorable support for the time being, coupled with limited downstream market demand follow-up, poor mentality of operators, local market quotations have been lowered. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas does not fluctuate much, with the quotation for the southern route around 2060 yuan / ton and the northern line around 2010-2040 yuan / ton. although methanol plants in some areas have been reduced or overhauled, due to the recent flat downstream demand and negative market mentality, the overall market turnover is average. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer, fell within a narrow range, with southern Shandong 2300 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday's northern Shandong 2310-2310 yuan / ton, with a low-end reduction of 20 yuan / ton. at present, the stock of raw materials in the lower reaches is high, and rigid demand is mainly buying. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2230-2280 yuan / ton today. The enterprise currently has no inventory pressure, the mentality of manufacturers is relatively strong, and the downstream replenishment enthusiasm is OK. Shanxi quotes 2160-2240 yuan / ton today, and the low end is stable. At present, most methanol manufacturers in Shanxi do not have inventory pressure for the time being, and most manufacturers hold the mentality of holding up prices.

Port market: methanol futures rebounded slightly today. Spot a small amount of rigid demand, the basis is weaker. After the rebound, the forward part of the unilateral shipments, arbitrage delivery, the basis stabilized. The overall deal was average. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2585, base difference 05: 2580, basis: 2565-2580, base difference: 2550-2555, base difference: 05: 75, transaction price: 2530-2545, basis difference: 05: 55: 60: 5: 2480-2500, basis difference: 05: 10: 15.

& nbsp In the future, it is predicted that the inventory pressure of most manufacturers in the Chinese market is not large in the near future, and some methanol enterprises may have a certain price-raising mentality, but the downstream demand has not substantially improved, and in the low-load operation of the 800000-ton MTO plant in Sierbang, Jiangsu Province, the 600000-ton plant in Ningbo Fude has been officially stopped for overhaul, and the methanol procurement volume in some areas has been reduced. In addition, the focus of methanol market transaction has moved up recently. The profit space of China's coal-to-olefin industry has narrowed, and under the drag of low profits, the possibility of subsequent storage, parking or production reduction of olefin units cannot be ruled out, and the operators in the field hold certain resistance to the high-priced supply, coupled with the weak trend of the coal market at the raw material end, the weak cost end support and the favorable and negative game, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price will fluctuate mainly, but we should pay attention to the coal price in the later stage. The release of spring inspection and downstream demand follow-up.