Daily Review of Urea: Follow-up of new orders slows down the lack of high market transactions (March 28)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on March 28 was 2,182.09, a decrease of 6.55 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.30% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.26%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 1970, the highest price is 1986, the lowest price is 1957, the settlement price is 1971, the closing price is 21 lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 1.05% month-on-month, and the fluctuation range throughout the day is 1957-1986; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 159; the 05 contract has reduced its position by 14313 lots today, and so far, it has held 143588 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, the price of urea in China's market stabilized and slightly lowered, and the market weakened strongly. After the company's quotation increased, market transactions decreased significantly, and prices fell in a short period of time.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China fell to 2,150 - 2,200 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,000 - 2,170 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,110 - 2,170 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,220 - 2,330 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,110 - 2,320 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles stabilized at 2,190 - 2,250 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,140 - 2,150 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,100 - 2,450 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, after the factory's quotation price increased slightly, the number of new orders was significantly reduced, and the market weakened. Supported by low-priced advance orders in the early stage, manufacturers 'quotations were temporarily stable and were mainly processed in a short time. In terms of the market, market transactions have slowed down. After making up orders in the early stage, the transaction of new orders has weakened at this stage, and the market situation has remained stable and volatile for a short period of time. On the supply side, early maintenance equipment is gradually being restored, and industry supply continues to be high. Under the loose supply and demand, the market is mainly weak and volatile. On the demand side, after a round of low-price replacement orders, the downstream is less willing to buy higher prices in the current market, and most purchases continue to buy on dips, with cautious operations being the main focus.

On the whole, the supply and demand side of the urea market is currently loose, which will curb the continued rise in prices. It is difficult for the market price to rise significantly. It is expected that the urea market price will stabilize and fall in a short period of time, and the situation will be weakened.