Methanol: Futures market fell and consolidated, Chinese market fluctuated and fell back

On March 27th, the market price index of methanol was 2265.94, which was 26.78 lower than that of yesterday and 1.17% lower than yesterday.

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Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on March 26:

China CFR 300-305USD / ton, down US $7 / tonne
Us FOB 103104 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asia CFR 342.75-343.75 US dollars / ton, Ping

European FOB 301.25-302.25 euros / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2170-2200 (- 30), North Route: 2030-2040 (- 10), Lunan: 2380 (- 20), Henan: 2280-2290 (- 20), Shanxi: 2160-2240 (0), Port: 2595-2625 (0)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 240-310 (0ram 0), Northern Route-Lunan 330-360 (0amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 240-300 (0Compare 10), Guanzhong-Southwestern Shandong 200-220 (- 20 Compay 20)

Spot market: today, the methanol market price is weak and volatile, the coal price is weak, and there is no obvious favorable support for the methanol cost end for the time being. in addition, the futures market volatility has fallen, the industry mentality is poor, and the spot price in the Chinese market has fallen synchronously. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas does not fluctuate much, with the quotation on the south line around 2080 yuan / ton, the price on the north line around 2030-2040 yuan / ton, and the low end down by 10 yuan / ton. at present, methanol manufacturers in Northwest China have no pressure on their inventories, and under the expectation that there are still devices for storage and maintenance in the later stage, the supply side is still in a certain positive support, but under the negative influence of weak support at the cost end, falling futures and lower prices downstream, the center of gravity of the market transaction continues to decline. The overall mentality of the industry is weak. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, fell within a narrow range. Southern Shandong 2380 yuan / ton, maintained yesterday, northern Shandong 2330-2340 yuan / ton, methanol futures downward trend, bearish mentality, downstream raw material inventory is sufficient, the mentality of operators to enter the market replenishment enthusiasm is not high. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2280-2300 yuan / ton today. The enterprise currently has no inventory pressure, the mentality of manufacturers is relatively strong, and the downstream replenishment enthusiasm is OK. Shanxi quotes 2160-2240 yuan / ton today, and the low end is stable. At present, most methanol manufacturers in Shanxi do not have inventory pressure for the time being, and most manufacturers hold the mentality of holding up prices.

Port market: methanol futures consolidated after falling today. During the month, the rigid demand is negotiated and the basis fluctuates. Long-term part of the unilateral high sell low suction, the base difference is stable, slightly stronger at the end of the day. The price difference of 3x4 is too small, and the overall transaction is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: 3 transaction price: 2595-2625, basis difference 05: 100, base difference: 115, transaction 4: 2595-2610, basis difference: 05: 100, transaction price: 2545-2575, basis difference: 05: 55, transaction price: 65, transaction price: 2525, basis difference: 05, 13: 15, transaction price: 3, transaction price: 2525, basis difference 05: 100, base difference 05: 100, transaction price: 2525, basis difference 05: 100, base difference: 65, transaction price: 2525, basis difference 05: 100, base difference: 65, transaction price: 2525, basis difference: 05, 13, 15.

& nbsp Future forecast: in the near future, there are both good and bad in the Chinese market. On the supply side, with the smooth delivery of early shipments, there is no pressure on the inventory of methanol production enterprises at present, and the supply-side parking in some areas has slightly supported the mentality of the manufacturers. the market quotation is high, but recently, under the influence of factors such as the overhaul of the main downstream olefin equipment and the continuous decline in the futures market, the enthusiasm of the terminal downstream and traders to enter the market is not high. The market transfer order price has been reduced. Come to see, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price is weak and volatile, but in the later stage, we still need to pay attention to the coal price, the release of the spring inspection of various manufacturers and the downstream demand follow-up.