PVC: Futures prices continue to test the low range. Do you want to continue to protect such PVC?

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March 27, 2024, 4:53 PM

PVC futures analysis: March 27th V2405 contract opening price: 5830, highest price: 5868, lowest price: 5807, position: 773531, settlement price: 5838, yesterday settlement: 5877, down: 39, daily trading volume: 736708 lots, precipitated capital: 3.154 billion, capital outflow: 156 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	March 26th	March twenty _ seventh	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5500-5550	5500-5550	0/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	5520-5660	5520-5650	0/-10	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5620-5670	5610-5660	-10/-10	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5550-5690	5550-5640	0/-50	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5550-5590	5520-5560	-30/-30	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5460-5600	5460-5600	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price spot market low range narrow range, market operation is weak. The comparison of valuation shows that North China is stable, East China is down 10 yuan / ton, South China is down 10 yuan / ton, Northeast China is down 50 yuan / ton, Central China is down 30 yuan / ton, and Southwest China is stable. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises will be reduced by 20-30 yuan / ton, and some enterprises with higher pre-quotation will be reduced by 100 yuan / ton. The futures price is mainly arranged in a narrow range of low positions throughout the day, and the price offered by traders in the spot market is little different from that of yesterday, but it is difficult to close a deal at a high price, and some of them give a discount of 10-20 yuan / ton, the futures price is low, and the price of the basis offer part has a price advantage. the downstream hanging order price is generally on the low side, including East China Base offer 05 contract-(250-300), South China 05 contract-(200). North 05 contract-(550-570), Southwest 05 contract-(250-300). Downstream mentality cautious terminal rigid demand-based, procurement enthusiasm is general, spot transaction atmosphere is mediocre.

From the perspective of futures: & the night price of nbsp; PVC2405 contract shows a small V-shaped trend, and the low price is mainly sorted out. Although the futures price showed upward performance after the start of morning trading, it was not strong enough, the high point was limited, and the afternoon price continued to be sorted out at a low level. 2405 contracts range from 5807 to 5868 throughout the day, with a spread of 61. 05. the contract has reduced its position by 39493 hands and has held 773531 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 5955, with 339758 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operation of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract futures price is as low and narrow as we expected. The fluctuation range of the all-day futures price is relatively small, and the disk continues to show a trend of reducing positions and leaving the market, but the stock level increases, of which the short opening is 26.7% higher than that of 24.2%. Futures prices run to the low range of some short orders profit-taking. The low point of the futures price is still close to the support level of the lower track, but the continuous sharp decline of the futures price expands the distance of the third track of the Bollinger belt, and the opening of the third track of the Bollinger belt (13,13,2) diverges. The KD line and MACD line at the daily line level continue to show a dead-end trend. In the short term, the operation of the futures price or continue to test the low range, observe the performance of the strong support under the rail, the range is the same as the previous low 5800-5850.

Spot aspect: The downward trend of the futures price leads to an increase in spot price transactions, but it is mainly limited to rigid demand. at present, the overall operation atmosphere of the spot market is weak, the downstream products enterprises are underemployed, the demand for PVC is reduced or poor, the procurement frequency has been maintained rigid demand procurement, and within the scope of the low operation of the two cities in the current period, the speculative demand of middlemen can not be generated. Thus, the high inventory caused by the game of supply and demand has always become a constraint. At present, the start-up load of PVC plant in chlor-alkali enterprises remains high, with the weakening of the two cities, the expected high point of the main contract has decreased, and the corresponding spot high of May market has also declined. Overall, the PVC spot market is still weak. On the outer disk, international oil prices closed lower as investors were divided on refining energy losses in the wake of the recent attack on Russian refineries in Ukraine. In addition, supply concerns and geopolitical risks continue to affect the oil market, and the spot market as a whole continues to operate in a narrow range in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	March 26th	March twenty _ seventh	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5817	5825	8
	Average spot price in East China	5590	5585	-5
	Average spot price in South China	5645	5635	-10
	PVC2405 basis difference	-227	-240	-13
	V2409 collection	5954	5955	1
	V2405-2409 close	-137	-130	7
	PP2405 collection	7497	7470	-27
	Plastic L2405 collection	8213	8183	-30
	V--PP basis difference	-1680	-1645	35
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2396	-2358	38

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index was 5573.76, down 8.93, or 0.16%. The PVC spot index of ethylene method is 5891.03, down 0%, the range is 0%, the index of calcium carbide method is down, the index of ethylene method is stable, and the price difference between ethylene method and calcium carbide method is 317.27.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	3.26 warehouse orders	3.27 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,254	0	-1,254
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,254	0	-1,254
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	184	184	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	184	184	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,988	1,988	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,632	1,632	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	311	11	-300
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,070	1,070	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	220	220	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	44	44	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	113	113	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	241	241	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	249	249	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	80	80	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,388	1,388	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	10	10	0
PVC subtotal		10,022	8,468	-1,554
Total		10,022	8,468	-1,554