Methanol: The methanol period is now weak and volatile. The market transaction atmosphere is mixed

On March 26th, the methanol market price index was 2292.72, down 6.56 from yesterday, down 0.29% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on March 25:

China CFR 308-310 USD / ton, Ping
Us FOB 103-104cents per gallon, down
Southeast Asia CFR US $344-345 per ton, Ping

European FOB 303.75-304.75 euros / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2230 (0), North Route: 2040-2070 (- 10), Lunan: 2400 (0), Henan: 2300-2320 (- 20), Shanxi: 2160-2250 (- 70), Port: 2665-2685 (0)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 240-310 (- 20 Universe Muir 10), Northern Route-Southern Shandong 330-360 (- 40 Uniqure 10), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 240-310 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 220-240 (- 10 Universe 20)

Spot market: today, the methanol market price is weak and volatile, the Chinese market equipment parking maintenance, coupled with the early factory shipments are smooth, the supply in the region has been reduced, but the downstream part of the olefin plant parking maintenance, the demand side performance is general, coupled with the futures market volatility, the mentality of the market is general. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas does not fluctuate much, with the quotation on the southern route around 2080 yuan / ton, and the quotation on the northern line around 2040-2070 yuan / ton, with the low end down by 10 yuan / ton. recently, some methanol plants in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi have stopped one after another, and the local spot supply has been narrowly tightened, but the overall enthusiasm for receiving goods downstream is not high, and most of them maintain rigid demand for bargains. today, some methanol manufacturers have failed bidding, and the overall mentality of operators is weak. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, fell narrowly. Southern Shandong 2400 yuan / ton, maintained yesterday, northern Shandong 2330-2350 yuan / ton, low-end down 20 yuan / ton, futures downward trend, bearish mentality. The market quotation in North China is adjusted narrowly. Hebei quotation is 2310-2360 yuan / ton today. The enterprise currently has no inventory pressure, the mentality of manufacturers is relatively strong, and the downstream replenishment enthusiasm is OK. Shanxi quotation today is 2160-2250 yuan / ton. the low end is reduced by 70 yuan / ton. at present, the production cost pressure of downstream manufacturers is high, the resistance to high-priced resources is strong, and the enterprise raw material inventory is OK, so the willingness to receive goods is weak.

Port market: today, methanol futures are weak. Within the month, the quotation is positive, the rigid demand is delivered, and the basis is weak; the paper goods are sold high and low, and the basis fluctuates in the range. The difference between the far and near months has narrowed. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: 3 deal: 2630-2670, base difference 05 "125max" 140 position 4 deal: 2610-2635, base difference 05 "105 swap" 110 position 4 deal: 2610, 0585 mark 90, deal 4: 2565-2595, base difference 05 "55amp" 65scape 5: 2520-2540, base difference 05x15 "20.

& nbsp Future forecast: recently, the Chinese market equipment overhaul restart, Jiutai 1 million ton plant restart operation, Yulin Yanzhou Mining Phase I 600000 ton / year methanol plant has been stopped for overhaul, expected to last about 10 days, coupled with the early factory shipments smoothly, at present, the inventory pressure of most enterprises is low, the supply side is good support under the local enterprise storage push operation, but with the continuous increase of methanol price. The profits of downstream industries are further compressed, the enthusiasm of operators and terminal traders to enter the market is limited, coupled with the parking and maintenance of some olefin units downstream, there is a certain negative impact on the demand side. At present, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price is weak and volatile, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the coal price, the release of the spring inspection of various manufacturers and the follow-up of downstream demand.