[Soda ash]3.25 Soda ash Daily Review: Soda ash market is basically stable

Analysis of soda ash market

Today, the price of soda ash in China is basically stable. As of now, the price of light soda ash in South China is between 2,200 - 2,250 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Central China is between 1,800 - 2,000 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,000 - 2,100 yuan/ton; today, the start of soda ash enterprises remains stable, and the market supply is still at a high level; Market shipments remain just in demand, the market sentiment for stocking is not positive for the time being, the transaction atmosphere is general, and the soda ash market maintains a stable operation in the short-term.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2409, the main contract for soda ash, on March 25, was 1825 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1775 yuan/ton, an increase of-3.95% within the day. The intraday high was 1845 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1765 yuan/ton, with a total position of 565991 lots, a month-on-month +100571 lots.

Today, the main contract for soda ash increased significantly and declined. After the main contract was moved to the 09 contract, the proportion of expected transactions has expanded, and the medium-and long-term excess logic has led to a large influx of short orders, exchanging time for space. In addition, news of imported alkali arriving in Hong Kong came again over the weekend. If import profits cannot be closed, subsequent pricing pressure on China may continue. Moreover, downstream glass continues to operate weakly, causing certain negative feedback on upstream pricing when its own profits weaken. However, it should be noted that the 09 contract is facing a maintenance season and a node when macro expectations are rising. Coupled with the fact that there is still lower cost support in the short term, and it also faces strong resistance from some speculative bulls after the price goes down. In the future, we still need to pay attention to whether there is a phenomenon of exceeding expectations in the upstream market that disrupts market operations.

market outlook

In the short term, some soda ash manufacturers will maintain reduced production. In the early stage, some enterprises will resume production, and the rest of the manufacturers have no maintenance plans. Market demand remains stable, and most of them need procurement. The market has a strong wait-and-see attitude. In the later stage, soda ash prices may fluctuate within a narrow range. Adjustment.