Methanol: Futures market highs fell back and the spot market stabilized slightly

On March 22, the methanol market price index was 2302.11, down 1.2 per cent from yesterday and 0.05 per cent lower than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on March 21:

China's CFR ranges from US $308 to US $315 per ton, down US $2 per ton.
Us FOB 104-105 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asia CFR US $344-345 per ton, Ping

European FOB 303.75-304.75 euros / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2210-2260 (0), North Route: 2030-2040 (0), Lunan: 2430 (0), Henan: 2310-2330 (- 20), Shanxi: 2230-2280 (0), Port: 2650-2670 (0)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 270-330 (0ax 0), North Line-South Shandong 370-400 (0max 0), South Line-North Shandong 270-310 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 230-260 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market price is adjusted in a narrow range, the futures market is high, and the market transaction atmosphere is general. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas does not fluctuate much, with the quotation for the southern route around 2080 yuan / ton and the northern line around 2030-2040 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, the spring inspection of the market was gradually realized, the supply in the region was reduced, and the market atmosphere was boosted. The enthusiasm of the downstream market to enter the market and replenish the stock is OK. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer, fell within a narrow range, with southern Shandong 2430 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday's northern Shandong 2350-2370 yuan / ton, and the low end was reduced by 10 yuan / ton. traders and downstream actively bought, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market was OK. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2310-2360 yuan / ton today. Enterprises currently have no inventory pressure, the mentality of manufacturers is relatively strong, and the downstream replenishment enthusiasm is OK. Shanxi quotes 2230-2280 yuan / ton today. The low end is reduced by 20 yuan / ton, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is OK.

Port market: today, methanol futures are weakly consolidated. Within the month price shipment, rigid demand to buy, the basis rebounded; long-term part of the unilateral high sell low suction, the basis is relatively stable. The price difference of 3prime 4 widened slightly, and the overall transaction throughout the day was mediocre. Transaction price of Taicang main Port:

(3) deal: 2655-2670, base difference 05x100 Universe 120 position 4. Deal: 2640-2650, base difference 05x90 Universe 100 position 4. Deal: 2600-2610, base difference 05x50 pound 60x 5: 2560-2565, base difference 05x20.

Future forecast: recently, some areas of the Chinese market have entered the state of spring inspection, the market supply in the region has been reduced, and there is still spring inspection news released in the short term, and methanol manufacturers have a certain psychology of keeping up the price under the favorable support of the supply side. however, at present, the terminal market demand has not significantly improved, and with the continuous increase of methanol prices, downstream operators and traders do not have a strong intention to pursue higher prices. From the point of view of the port market, it is expected that in the later stage, some olefin units in East China will be stored and overhauled, and local demand may decline, but recently, the arrival volume of foreign ships is still at a low level, coupled with rising prices in China, and the space for arbitrage between ports and China has narrowed. The supply of goods in the Chinese market may be relatively limited, and short-term port spot circulation may still be tight. At present, there are both good and bad in the Chinese market next week, and it is expected that the short-term methanol market will mainly fluctuate, and the possibility of a small downward adjustment in some regional prices cannot be ruled out. The port spot is still strong and volatile, but in the later stage, we still need to pay attention to coal prices, the release of spring inspection by various manufacturers and the follow-up of downstream demand.