Daily Review of Urea: There is no significant change in weak market trading (March 21)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on March 21 was 2,245.59, a decrease of 14.77 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.65% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.35%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2010, the highest price is 2022, the lowest price is 1991, the settlement price is 2008, and the closing price is 2011. The closing price is 8% higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month increase is 0.40%. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 1991-2022; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 199; the 05 contract has reduced its position by 6228 lots today, and so far, it has held 187927 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices continued to decline, the sentiment remained pessimistic, corporate quotations continued to test downward, and the market conditions were temporarily stable with little change.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China fell to 2,200 - 2,240 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,030 - 2,290 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,200 - 2,270 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,290 - 2,360 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,160 - 2,360 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2,220 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China fell to 2,180 - 2,190 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China fell to 2,180 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers continue to execute the remaining pending orders, followed up a small number of new orders, received receipts are lower than expected, the factory's delivery is poor, the company's inventory is rising, and the current quotation continues to be lowered. In terms of the market, the market is operating calmly, with no good news driving the market. Operators lack confidence in trading, and most new orders are sold and need sporadic replenishment orders to follow up. On the supply side, industry start-ups remain high. With high daily production, the accumulated stock of enterprises has increased, and the supply side is empty. On the demand side, market demand still maintains bargain-hunting purchases. Low-price transactions have weak support for market price trends. Downstream purchasing mentality continues to be cautious and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude.

On the whole, there is no obvious good news in the urea market at present. The market is running flat and the market has not changed. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to be weak and volatile in a short period of time, and the price will rise and wait for the arrival of a new round of centralized replenishment.