Daily Review of Urea: Export news is unclear for the time being, the focus of market transactions has shifted (March 14)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on March 14 was 2,325.14, a decrease of 5.00 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.21% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.21%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2116, the highest price is 2130, the lowest price is 2102, the settlement price is 2115, and the closing price is 2109. The closing price is 26 lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 1.22% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2102-2130; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 161; the 05 contract has increased its position by 6892 lots today, and so far, it has held 176808 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices continue to be consolidated downward. After the factory cut prices, order receipts have improved, and the market continues to sell goods at the low-end.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,300 - 2,370 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,100 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,260 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,370 - 2,400 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,240 - 2,400 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles stabilized at 2,310 - 2,380 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,310 - 2,320 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,280 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, manufacturers continue to implement advance receipts in advance, and gradually reduce the number of orders to be issued. New orders have average transactions, and more low prices and a small number are followed up sporadically. In terms of the market, the good news on exports is still unclear. Most new orders in the market are sold at the low end. The confidence of traders in trading has declined, and the market is operating weakly and steadily. In terms of supply, the industry's Nissan is still at a high level, the market supply continues to be sufficient, companies are actively shipping, and inventories have decreased slightly, temporarily at a low level. On the demand side, we are currently in the peak spring plowing season, and agricultural goods shipments continue to follow up at a slow pace; industrial downstream replenishment continues to operate smoothly, and the mentality is cautious, and the overall wait-and-see atmosphere remains undiminished.

On the whole, the current urea market is mostly moving towards the low-end. Market news affects the mentality of the industry operators. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to stabilize and consolidate downward in the short term.