Methanol: Futures range fluctuates, Chinese market rises within a narrow range

On March 13, the methanol market price index was 2257, up 0.83% from yesterday and 0.04% higher than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on March 12:

China's CFR ranges from US $303 to US $312 per ton, down US $3 per ton.
Us FOB 104-104cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asia CFR US $344-345 per ton, Ping

European FOB 308-309 euros / ton, down 2.75 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2140-2200 (10), North Route: 1940-1990 (0), Lunan: 2420 (0), Henan: 2300-2345 (0), Shanxi: 2200-2270 (0), Port: 2690-2750 (- 30)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 320-380 (0ram 0), North Line-South Shandong 280-320 (0max 0), South Line-North Shandong 280-320 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 230-280 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol market is adjusted by Ah Fu, and the futures market is weak, but the quotation of the port spot market is arranged at a high level under the influence of tight supply of negotiable goods, which forms a certain support for the mentality of operators in the Chinese market. and local coking enterprises reduce production, the supply side is also good support, but at present, the terminal downstream market demand follow-up is limited, operators generally enter the market replenishment enthusiasm, rigid demand. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been raised narrowly, with the quotation on the south line around 2050 yuan / ton and the price on the north line around 1940-1990 yuan / ton. today, the bidding price of regional manufacturers has been raised, forming a certain support for the mentality of those in the market, but the downstream demand is limited, and the shipments of some manufacturers are general. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, moved steadily, with 2420 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2330-2350 yuan / ton in northern Shandong yesterday. The mentality of manufacturers is relatively strong, but the performance of traditional downstream demand is general and the positive support for the market is limited. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2300-2330 yuan / ton today. Methanol enterprises currently have no inventory pressure, and the mentality of manufacturers is relatively strong, but the traditional downstream demand performance is general, which is limited to support the market. Shanxi quoted price of 2200-2270 yuan / ton today, downstream to maintain rigid demand to pick up goods, the trading atmosphere in the field is OK.

Port market: methanol futures consolidation today. Paper arbitrage selling mainly, the price is strong, the purchase price is right to follow up, the basis rebounded slightly; afternoon trading stalemate. The overall turnover is light. Taicang main port transaction price: 3, transaction price: 2690, base difference 05: 180 swap, base difference: 185, transaction price: 2685-2690, base difference: 05, 170: 175, transaction price: 2595-2600, basis difference: 05: 90.

Future forecast: recently, some enterprises in the Chinese market have issued spring inspection plans, and the market start-up is expected to decline, and there is a certain support for local market prices, but at the same time, there are storage and maintenance plans for some olefin units in East China and Northwest China. Demand may be weakened, the price range of the Chinese market will be adjusted mainly in the short term, and the port may still maintain its current strong state. During the week, the mainstream inventory in the port area will be removed from the warehouse. Due to the influence of the stable pick-up volume in each reservoir area and the limited replenishment of foreign ships, the supply of negotiable goods in the region is tight, supporting the strong operation of spot quotations in the port area, but in the later stage, we should pay attention to the coal price, the release of spring inspection by various manufacturers and the follow-up of downstream demand.