PVC: The fluctuation range of short futures entry remains unchanged, showing a trend of strong first and then weak, and the spot trend is slightly divided

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March 13, 2024, 4:39 PM

PVC futures analysis: March 13th V2405 contract opening price: 5923, highest price: 5938, lowest price: 5863, position: 859872, settlement price: 5909, yesterday settlement: 5903, up: 6, daily trading volume: 803113 lots, precipitated capital: 3.539 billion, capital inflow: 34.75 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	March 12th	March 13th	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5580-5630	5560-5620	-20/-10	Send to cash remittance
East China	5640-5710	5610-5700	-30/-10	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5640-5680	5630-5700	-10/20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5510-5660	5450-5660	-60/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5580-5630	5580-5640	0/10	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5480-5620	5480-5620	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price trend is obvious, morning and afternoon quotation is different. Compared with the valuation, the price of North China fell by 10-20 yuan / ton, East China fell by 10-30 yuan / ton, low-end prices in South China fell by 10 yuan / ton, high-end prices rose by 20 yuan / ton, and low-end prices in Northeast China fell by 60 yuan / ton. high-end prices in Central China rose 10 yuan / ton, and the southwest region was stable. Most of the factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises remained stable, and individual enterprises raised 30 yuan / ton slightly. Futures prices fell again in the afternoon after a narrow shock, leading to a divergence in the spot market. In the morning, the price offered by traders in all regions of the spot market was slightly higher than that of yesterday, but the price rise or even continued to decline slightly after the afternoon price decline. Spot market price and spot price appear alternately, including East China basis offer 05 contract-(250), South China 05 contract-(150-200), North 05 contract-(500-550), Southwest 05 contract-(300). On the whole, it is difficult to close a deal with high-priced goods in today's spot market, and the current purchasing enthusiasm in the lower reaches is low and the wait-and-see intention is strong.

Futures point of view: PVC2405 contract night price opening small-range shock finishing, to the end of the price trend has not seen an obvious direction. Futures prices weakened slightly after the start of morning trading and showed a further downward trend in late afternoon trading. 2405 contracts range from 5863 to 5938 throughout the day, with a spread of 75. 05 and an increase of 15198 positions in contracts, with 859872 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 6036, with 186106 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the futures price of nbsp; PVC2405 contract showed a downward trend of increasing positions at the end of the day, in which in terms of transactions, the short opening of 25.2% was higher than that of 21.9%, and the downside short opening of increased positions was relatively obvious, and the futures price was pushed back below 5900. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) narrows obviously, and the trend of KD line and MACD line at the daily level is unstable, because the short-term price is basically within the horizontal range, resulting in the trend line losing certain reference significance. Futures prices show a different direction to do yesterday, candle chart shows a negative column cross star, short-term price operation or continue to take the postgraduate entrance examination under the support of the range, observe the performance in the range of 5850-5900.

Spot aspect: period the two cities once again showed a small adjustment trend, and throughout the trading day morning and afternoon session trend differentiation, although the time has arrived in mid-March, but the current two cities still lack a clear fuse to break the situation. First of all, the trend of narrow fluctuations in the futures market, although it also shows a higher position, but regardless of the long and short operating profit space is reduced. Secondly, the spot market is still faced with the pressure of supply digestion, and the spot price can not show a better sustained upward situation. Although there are certain expectations on the supply and demand side, the current market is more difficult to break. Oil prices fell in the outer disk as the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its forecast for US oil production growth in 2024. Us crude oil production is expected to increase by 260000 b / d this year to 13.19 million b / d, up 90, 000 b / d from previous forecasts, EIA said in its short-term Energy Outlook report. On the whole, PVC spot prices will continue to adjust in a small range in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	March 12th	March 13th	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5926	5879	-47
	Average spot price in East China	5675	5655	-20
	Average spot price in South China	5660	5665	5
	PVC2405 basis difference	-251	-224	27
	V2409 collection	6071	6036	-35
	V2405-2409 close	-145	-157	-12
	PP2405 collection	7436	7426	-10
	Plastic L2405 collection	8166	8132	-34
	V--PP basis difference	-1510	-1547	-37
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2240	-2253	-13

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index fell 9.2% to 5622.67, or 0.163% on March 13. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 5934.69, down 7.46, or 0.126%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 312.02.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	3.12 warehouse orders	3.13 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	1,702	1,702	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,702	1,702	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	1,786	1,786	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,372	1,372	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	414	414	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,062	2,062	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,983	1,983	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	18,482	18,482	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,080	3,080	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	329	329	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	1,911	1,839	-72
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	1	1	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	686	686	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	165	165	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,599	1,599	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	440	440	0
PVC subtotal		40,097	40,025	-72
Total		40,097	40,025	-72