Daily Review of Urea: There is no good market to support a stalemate in the market operation (March 13)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on March 13 was 2,330.14, a decrease of 12.41 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.53% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.08%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2157, the highest price is 2157, the lowest price is 2110, the settlement price is 2135, and the closing price is 2112. The closing price is 59 lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 2.72% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2110-2157; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 168; the 05 contract has increased its position by 4494 lots today, and so far, the position is 169916 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices fell overall. The quotations from various factories were slightly loosened and lowered. The transactions of new orders in the market were deadlocked, and prices were consolidated downward.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China fell to 2,300 - 2,370 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,120 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,270 - 2,320 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,370 - 2,400 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,260 - 2,400 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2,310 - 2,380 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,310 - 2,320 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China fell to 2,280 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, the transaction of new orders at the factory today was average, and the number of manufacturers waiting for orders was gradually reduced. Short-term shipment pressure appeared, and the quotation price was stable and lowered. In terms of the market, export news is still unclear, the overall atmosphere of the industry is cautious, market trading is deadlocked, some low-end transactions follow up in a small number, and the overall wait-and-see attitude remains unchanged. In terms of supply, industry start-ups continue to be high, market spot supply continues to be sufficient, and individual devices have maintenance plans later this month, and supply is in operation in a consolidated manner. On the demand side, downstream procurement is relatively cautious, and the overall wait-and-see attitude is strong. There are sporadic and small quantities that just need to be replenished. Downstream factories are stable in replenishment, and workers need to continue to follow up.

On the whole, transactions at the low-end of the urea market are currently increasing. Without obvious positive support, it is expected that the urea market price will continue to stabilize and consolidate downward in the short term.