Daily Review of Urea: Downstream demand follows up and low-end market transactions increase (March 12)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on March 12 was 2,342.55, a decrease of 0.45 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.02% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.69%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2189, the highest price is 2194, the lowest price is 2152, the settlement price is 2171, and the closing price is 2157. The closing price is 23% lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 1.06% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2152-2194; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 133; the 05 contract has reduced 888 lots today, and so far, the position is 165422 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, the price of urea in China's market fell steadily and moderately. Market demand continued to follow up. The overall market fluctuated little and was consolidating for a short period of time.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,330 - 2,390 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,140 - 2,410 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,270 - 2,320 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,380 - 2,430 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has stabilized at 2,270 - 2,400 yuan/ton, while the price of large particles has dropped to 2,320 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,310 - 2,320 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,300 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, most manufacturers cut prices and collect orders during the process of executing pending orders. The overall low-end orders are better and transactions have increased. In terms of the market, after market prices loosened and lowered, new orders continued to increase, the market was temporarily stable and improving, and prices were consolidating. On the supply side, early maintenance equipment was restored, the industry's operating rate rebounded within a narrow range, and Nissan continued to operate at a high level. On the demand side, agricultural demand has slowed down in stages, and overall demand is unstable, which is difficult to support the market trend. The construction of downstream industrial factories continues to steadily rise, maintaining bargain-hunting, and demand continues to follow up.

On the whole, the current urea market has many transactions at the low end, and there is little change in the market. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to have difficulty rising in a short period of time and will be consolidating.