Methanol: Futures market fluctuated upward, Chinese prices adjusted within a narrow range

On March 11, the methanol market price index was 2242.99, up 1.62 from the previous working day and 0.07 per cent month-on-month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on March 8:

China's CFR ranges from US $305 to US $310 per ton, up US $3 per ton
Us FOB 102.41-103.41 cents per gallon, down 1.59 cents per gallon
Southeast Asia CFR US $344-345 per ton, Ping

European FOB 313.25-314.25 euros / ton, down 1.25 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2130-2180 (- 20), North Route: 1920-1960 (0), Lunan: 2420 (20), Henan: 2290-23250 (30), Shanxi: 2150-2238 (0), Port: 2720-2750 (25)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 330-370 (0Uniqtel 20), Northern Route-Southern Shandong 270-320 (- 30 Uniqmer 30), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 270-320 (- 30qamp mer 30), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 230-280 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, methanol market prices rise and fall each other, the overall supply of goods in the Chinese market is still abundant, the inventory pressure of manufacturers in the main producing areas still exists, coupled with the weak operation of raw material coal prices, the performance of cost-side support is general, but the port area operates strongly under the influence of tight spot circulation and strong futures market trend, and the port base gap continues to strengthen. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is stable, with the quotation for the southern route around 1990 yuan / ton and the northern line around 1920-1960 yuan / ton. at present, the operation of the plant in the field is relatively stable, and there are maintenance plans for individual manufacturers in the later stage, and its supporting methanol plans to be exported, and the overall supply pressure in the market still exists, but around the middle of the year, some devices in the region are planned to stop for maintenance, and in the later stage, we need to pay attention to the specific operation of the plant in the field. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, rose narrowly, 2420 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 20 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, and 2320-2340 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. Some downstream devices in the field were stopped for maintenance, methanol support on the demand side was weakened, and operators' wait-and-see mood gradually rose. However, Shandong Rongxin 250000-ton coke oven gas methanol plant was overhauled for about 30 days on March 10, and the supply-side favorable support was slightly improved. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotation is 2260-2320 yuan / ton today. At the beginning of the week, the wait-and-see mood of the operators in the market is obvious, and most of the new prices have not been issued. Recently, some of the traditional downstream have been restored one after another, but the demand increment in the market is not obvious. The favorable support for the market is limited. Shanxi quotes 2150-2235 yuan / ton today. It is difficult for downstream manufacturers to purchase volume, and rigid demand is given priority to.

Port market:

Future forecast: in the near future, the overall supply performance of the Chinese market is still abundant, and the supply side has poor support for methanol, but at present, some enterprises have issued spring inspection plans, and the market start-up is expected to decline, but at the same time, Jiutai 600000-ton MTO plant plans to be overhauled from March 15. it is expected to last for a month, methanol or storage and export may be possible, then the supply pressure in the region may not be improved. It is expected that the Chinese market may continue to operate weakly in the short term, but the port market quotation will operate strongly under the influence of tight spot circulation and strong futures market trend, the basis will continue to be strong, and the late import source arrival volume is still relatively small, the port spot will still maintain a high level of consolidation in the short term, but in the later stage, we need to pay attention to the coal price, the release of spring inspection by various manufacturers and the follow-up of downstream demand.