PVC: Futures fell below the middle track and were approaching the lower track. The open position was relatively obvious, and the spot market began to decline.

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March 11, 2024, 4:37 PM

PVC futures analysis: March 11 V2405 contract opening price: 5896, highest price: 5928, lowest price: 5833, position: 843826, settlement price: 5873, yesterday settlement: 5898, down: 25, daily trading volume: 898347 lots, precipitated capital: 3.461 billion, capital inflow: 490000.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	March 8th	March eleventh	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5580-5620	5530-5590	-50/-30	Send to cash remittance
East China	5620-5690	5570-5670	-50/-20	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5630-5680	5600-5660	-30/-20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5510-5670	5510-5660	0/-10	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5570-5620	5530-5590	-40/-30	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5480-5650	5480-5620	0/-30	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices fell slightly, market sentiment weakened. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 30-50 yuan / ton in North China, 20-50 yuan / ton in East China, 20-30 yuan / ton in South China, 10 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 30-40 yuan / ton in Central China and 30 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises part of the factory price to maintain wait-and-see, some enterprises began to slightly reduce the price of 30-50 yuan / ton, a small number of contracts signed. The futures market has weakened obviously, with prices in various regions of the spot market falling slightly, with traders offering lower prices than last Friday, and it is difficult to make a deal without inquiries for the time being. As the futures price goes down, the price advantage increases, and the recent basis adjustment does not change much, including East China basis offer 05 contract-(230-250), South China 05 contract-(150-200), North 05 contract-(500-540), Southwest 05 contract-(300). With the downward trend of futures price, the transaction of point price advantage has increased, and the feedback of merchants in various regions has improved.

From a futures point of view: & the night price of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract rose slightly at the start of the day, but it did not rise much and returned to the downside at the end of the night. Futures prices fell further after the start of early trading on Monday, reaching a low of 5833 at one point, then began to fluctuate mainly at low levels, and settled in a narrow range of lows in late afternoon trading. 2405 contracts range from 5833 to 5928 throughout the day, with a spread of 95. 05. The contract increased its position by 6692 hands, and has held 843826 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 6011, with 176155 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: The operation of the futures price of PVC2405 contract shows a trend of short opening, which increases the position and goes downwards. In terms of transaction, the short opening is 24.1% compared with 22.7% more. After the futures price continues to break through the middle rail from above the middle rail, the fluctuation range expands and approaches the position of the lower rail, and the technical level shows that the opening of the third rail of the Bollinger belt (13,13,2) narrows obviously. The distance between the three tracks is shortened because of the recent trend of finishing and operation. The deadcross trend of the KD line at the daily level continues to expand, and the futures price shows a continuous negative decline from the high point, and the daily level of MACD also begins to show two lines crossing. In the short term, the operation of futures prices or continue to test the low range to observe the support in the range of 5800-5850.

Spot: first of all the overall range of commodities, closed at noon, the decline of iron ore fell more than 5%, glass, red dates, coking coal, thread, soda ash, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), coke, fuel oil fell more than 2%. Commodity sentiment has weakened, the PVC plate has a significant downward trend of expanding volatility, although the decline is relatively large, but the change in position is relatively small, from the current time node, although commodities and PVC have a weakening trend, but because of the existence of expectations, bears are not willing to take too much risk. On the other hand, the decline in the intermediate price in the corresponding spot market has improved the turnover. With the passage of time, spring maintenance at the supply and demand level may become an influencing factor, and demand is also expected to recover. Generally speaking, whether it is the futures market or the spot level, even if there is a weakening trend in the market, the range is not too large. In the short term, the PVC spot market still maintains a narrow adjustment.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	March 8th	March eleventh	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5906	5860	-46
	Average spot price in East China	5655	5620	-35
	Average spot price in South China	5655	5630	-25
	PVC2405 basis difference	-251	-240	11
	V2409 collection	6052	6011	-41
	V2405-2409 close	-146	-151	-5
	PP2405 collection	7448	7470	22
	Plastic L2405 collection	8170	8177	7
	V--PP basis difference	-1542	-1610	-68
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2264	-2317	-53

China PVC Index: according to Tuduo data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index fell 30.19 to 5593.99 on March 11, a range of 0.537%. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 5933.6, down 44.34, with a range of 0.742%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 339.61.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	3.8 warehouse receipt volume	3.11 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,414	2,104	-310
	Guangzhou materials	712	402	-310
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,702	1,702	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	1,936	1,936	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,522	1,522	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	414	414	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	719	121	-598
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,673	2,413	-260
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,165	2,375	-1,790
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	19,242	18,882	-360
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,438	3,080	-358
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	639	639	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,642	3,602	-40
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	1	1	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	120	-29
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	686	686	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	165	165	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,599	1,599	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	440	440	0
PVC subtotal		47,812	44,067	-3,745
Total		47,812	44,067	-3,745