Daily review of urea: Supply continues to be high, market prices are stable and slightly moving (March 11)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on March 11 was 2,343.00, an increase of 1.36 from last Friday, a month-on-month increase of 0.06% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.92%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2175, the highest price is 2195, the lowest price is 2166, the settlement price is 2180, and the closing price is 2181. The closing price is 6 lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 0.27% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2166-2195; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 109; the 05 contract has reduced its position by 8130 lots today, and so far, it has held 166310 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market price increased slightly, and factory ex-factory quotations were mixed. They maintained a small range consolidation and remained stable overall.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,330 - 2,390 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,150 - 2,410 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,270 - 2,310 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,380 - 2,440 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,270 - 2,400 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles stabilized at 2,340 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,310 - 2,320 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,300 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, most manufacturers continue to ship advance orders with sufficient orders, offer large and small changes, prices in some mainstream regions are loose, transactions at the low-end of the market are increasing, and current quotations still have room to decline. On the market side, export news is not clear yet, and market conditions are in a stalemate. In terms of supply, there were a small number of company equipment overhauls this week, the industry continued to operate at a high level, and sufficient supply continued. On the demand side, downstream replenishment needs still exist, and most purchases are maintained at low prices. There is obvious resistance to high prices. Overall demand is advancing slowly, and the mentality is cautious.

On the whole, the current urea market supply continues to remain high, and demand maintains bargain hunting. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to rise in a short period of time without momentum, and prices will stabilize and consolidate downward.