Methanol: Futures market fluctuates at high levels, Chinese market adjusts within a narrow range

On March 7, the methanol market price index was 2,241.37, down 1.15 from yesterday and 0.05% month-on-month.

External disk dynamics:

Methanol closing on March 6:

China CFR 305-307 USD/ton, flat;
US FOB 103-104 cents/gallon, flat;
Southeast Asia CFR 347-348 US $/ton, flat;

European FOB 317.75-318.75 euros/ton, flat.

Today's price summary:

Guanzhong: 2150-2200 (0), North Line:1920-1970 (0), Southern Shandong:2400-2420 (0), Henan:2260-2280 (-20), Shanxi: 2150-2210 (0), Port:2695-2705 (0)

Freight:

North Line-Northern Shandong 330-390 (20/20), North Line-Southern Shandong 410-460 (0/0), South Line-Northern Shandong 290-350 (0/0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 230-280 (0/0)

Spot market: Today, methanol market prices fell within a narrow range, futures market prices fluctuated at high levels, and port spot quotes were adjusted with the market. However, the current downstream market demand is limited to follow-up and the market transaction atmosphere is limited. At present, some manufacturers in the Chinese market still have shipment demand, and then continue to give profits to goods. Some players entered the market on dips, and transactions with low-priced sources were still acceptable. Specifically speaking, the market prices in the main producing areas are stable. The price for the southern line is around 1990 yuan/ton, and the price for the northern line is around 1,920 - 1,960 yuan/ton. Recently, the overall inventory pressure of manufacturers in the producing areas still exists, and some manufacturers mainly reduce prices for shipments. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, have temporarily stabilized, with 2,400 - 2,420 yuan/ton in southern Shandong, maintaining yesterday's level of 2,300 - 2,310 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. Some downstream units in the site have been suspended for maintenance, and the demand side's support for methanol has weakened, and the industry has gradually become a wait-and-see attitude. The market quotation in North China has adjusted within a narrow range. Today, Hebei quoted 2,260 - 2,320 yuan/ton, maintaining yesterday's price, and Shanxi quoted 2,150 - 2,210 yuan/ton today. The wait-and-see attitude of the industry is gradually growing, and the market transaction speed is slowing down. However, there is currently no pressure on manufacturers 'inventories and still maintain a firm price mentality.

Outlook: Recently, the Chinese market has started to maintain a high position, and the overall supply in the market is relatively sufficient. Under the influence of supply pressure, the Chinese market has continued to operate in a weak manner. However, the port area has experienced strong fluctuations under the influence of tight spot circulation, resulting in the price difference between China and the port continues to remain high, and some goods flow back to the port. However, there are few freight vehicles in the market, freight prices continue to be at a high position, and the overall market transaction volume is average. At present, the methanol market next week is mixed with good and bad results. The short-term support for methanol from the cost side may be relatively limited. The fundamental performance of methanol itself is still average. Although equipment in some areas has been suspended for maintenance, the overall supply may still be sufficient. Overall, it is expected that next week, methanol market prices will continue to be regional trends, the Chinese market may continue to fluctuate, and port spot prices will operate firmly, but coal prices will need to be paid attention to in the later period. Release status of spring inspections by various manufacturers and follow-up status of downstream demand.