[Soda ash] Soda ash Weekly Review: Soda ash prices are low, the market has stopped falling and recovered

Low soda ash prices, the market has stopped falling and recovered (3.7 Weekly Review of soda ash)

1. Analysis of China's soda ash market

This week, China's soda ash spot market fell first and then stabilized. As of now, the price of light soda ash in China is between 1,800 - 2,100 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,000 - 2,300 yuan/ton. This week, the start of soda ash companies is still high, and the equipment of individual companies fluctuates slightly, but the overall supply is relatively sufficient; As soda ash prices continue to fall, some market participants believe that prices have hit bottom, market demand for stocking has increased, market transaction atmosphere has improved, shipments of soda ash companies have improved, and inventory of some companies has declined. Due to the decline in inventories and the increase in orders on hand, the low prices of individual companies have stopped falling and gone up; currently, market purchasing intentions are performing well, downstream companies have started to stabilize, and demand for soda ash increases. The soda ash market will continue to pick up in the short term.

In terms of futures, due to negative market feedback such as spot price cuts, the soda ash futures 05 contract price once again struggled after falling below 1800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. As important meetings approached, market news was disturbed repeatedly, macro sentiment warmed up, and soda ash prices, which were already supported by costs, were once again blocked. The overall trend during the week was dominated by shocks.

Forecast for next week: Due to the forecast of inventory and maintenance by some enterprises in the market next month, coupled with low prices, market demand for stocking will pick up, soda ash prices will stop falling, the market transaction atmosphere will gradually improve, purchase orders from downstream terminal enterprises and traders will increase, and the soda ash market will stabilize and rise; Industry start-ups are still high. Although some enterprises have reduced their equipment production loads, the overall impact is not significant. Market start-ups are still high, companies have delivered orders in hand, and the soda ash market is expected to operate well.

2.  Comparison of market prices of soda ash in regions

Unit: yuan/ton

3. Soda ash process profit statement

As of March 7 this week, the profit of the combined alkali method was 516 yuan/ton, down 126 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of the ammonia-alkali method was 280 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton from the previous week.

4. Equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises

About 91.3% of the soda ash industry started this week, an increase of 0.33% from last week. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week is about 755,000 tons.

5. Soda ash manufacturer inventory

The total inventory of Chinese soda ash manufacturers this week was 868,000 tons, compared with around 850,000 tons last week, an increase of 18,000 tons month-on-month, or 2.07%.