PVC: The mid-track futures are arranged horizontally in a narrow range, the opening of the Bollinger Band is rapidly narrowed, and the spot range is arranged.

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March 8, 2024, 4:34 PM

PVC futures analysis: March 8th V2405 contract opening price: 5880, highest price: 5914, lowest price: 5870, position: 837134, settlement price: 5898, yesterday settlement: 5923, down: 25, daily trading volume: 584428 lots, precipitated capital: 3.461 billion, capital inflow: 16.99 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	March seventh	March 8th	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5590-5640	5580-5620	-10/-20	Send to cash remittance
East China	5630-5720	5620-5690	-10/-30	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5670-5700	5630-5680	-40/-20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5510-5670	5510-5670	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5590-5630	5570-5620	-20/-10	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5500-5650	5480-5650	-20/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price range collation, prices in some areas slightly downward. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 10-20 yuan / ton in North China, 10-30 yuan / ton in East China, 20-40 yuan / ton in South China, stable in Northeast China, 10-20 yuan / ton in Central China and 20 yuan / ton in Southwest China. Upstream PVC production enterprises factory prices are still sporadically reduced 20-30 yuan / ton, coinciding with Friday some production enterprises still maintain a stable quotation, but the first generation of contracts are insufficient. The trend of futures market is weak and narrow, traders' early price offer is not much different from that of yesterday, and spot market price and spot price coexist, and the basis offer does not change much, among which, East China basis offer 05 contract-(250-270), South China 05 contract-(150-200), North 05 contract-(480-550), Southwest 05 contract-(300). On the whole, although the two quotation methods coexist, it is difficult to close a deal in terms of high-price supply, and the spot price advantage increases after the futures price goes down, but the downstream mentality is cautious, and some orders are on the low side.

From the perspective of futures: & the night price of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract opened slightly higher from the low, but the upward strength only rose above 5900 and began to collate narrowly. Prices continue to fluctuate in a small range after the start of morning trading, and the direction of afternoon prices is also unclear. 2405 contracts range from 5870 to 5914 throughout the day, with a price spread of 44.05 and an increase of 711 positions, with 837134 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 6052, with 163313 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operation of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract futures price is relatively narrow, only 44 points in the whole trading day, no matter how short the participation is insufficient. In terms of transaction, the empty opening is 23.7% compared with 20.3% more. The technical level shows that the opening of the third rail of the Bollinger belt (13,13,2) narrows obviously, and the futures price fluctuates narrowly around the middle rail. Market futures prices running at a high of 5993 showed four consecutive declines, while the KD line at the daily level still showed a dead-forked trend. At present, due to the lack of guidance from the fundamentals of PVC, no matter how empty it is, it is unable to show a good trend, resulting in a narrow fluctuation under pressure and support on the disk. In the short term, the operation of futures prices or continue to test the low range of 5850-5900 range support.

Spot: first of all, when the fluctuation of the futures futures price is relatively narrow, the guidance to the spot market is not strong, the products enterprises hang orders for rigid demand procurement, the current futures price fluctuations are still not enough to lead to speculative demand, so the PVC spot market is still supported by rigid demand procurement. However, when the restriction of real estate is relatively obvious, the high inventory under the game of supply and demand of PVC still does not get a good sustainable de-stocking. The variable factor of PVC fundamentals lies in the sporadic increase in calcium carbide prices, but has little impact on the overall PVC trend. In the outer disk, prices in the international crude oil futures market fell steadily as traders weighed the current supply and demand situation in the global oil market. Although China's export growth at the beginning of the year and Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell hinted that interest rates are expected to be cut this year, sending positive signals to the global economy and oil demand prospects, the OPEC+ may decide to phase out production cuts at the June meeting. On the whole, PVC spot market prices continue to be sorted out in a narrow range in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	March seventh	March 8th	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5882	5906	24
	Average spot price in East China	5675	5655	-20
	Average spot price in South China	5685	5655	-30
	PVC2405 basis difference	-207	-251	-44
	V2409 collection	6024	6052	28
	V2405-2409 close	-142	-146	-4
	PP2405 collection	7415	7448	33
	Plastic L2405 collection	8149	8170	21
	V--PP basis difference	-1533	-1542	-9
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2267	-2264	3

China PVC Index: according to Tuduo data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index fell 18.43% to 5624.18 on March 8, a range of 0.327%. The ethylene PVC spot index was 5977.94, down 14.88, with a range of 0.248%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 353.76.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	3.7 warehouse receipt volume	3.8 warehouse receipt volume	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,414	2,414	0
	Guangzhou materials	712	712	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,702	1,702	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	1,936	1,936	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,522	1,522	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	414	414	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	1,503	719	-784
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,673	2,673	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,165	4,165	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	20,388	19,242	-1,146
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,678	3,438	-240
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	639	639	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,642	3,642	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	1	1	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	686	686	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	165	165	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,599	1,599	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	440	440	0
PVC subtotal		49,982	47,812	-2,170
Total		49,982	47,812	-2,170