Daily review of urea: Market trading atmosphere, general prices are stable (March 7)

China Urea Price Index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on March 7 was 2,344.36, a decrease of 5.91 from yesterday, a month-on-month decrease of 0.25% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.80%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2210, the highest price is 2213, the lowest price is 2178, the settlement price is 2191, and the closing price is 13% lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 0.59% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2178-2213; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 87; the 05 contract has reduced its position by 1119 lots today, and so far, it has held 173963 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices fell slightly, manufacturers 'quotations stabilized and consolidated downward, the market's moving speed slowed down, and the market was operating in turmoil.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,330 - 2,390 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,150 - 2,410 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,260 - 2,310 yuan/ton. Prices in South China are stable at 2,380 - 2,450 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,280 - 2,400 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,340 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,310 - 2,320 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,300 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, most manufacturers have stable quotations and temporarily implemented pending orders. Under the expectation of shrinking supply, manufacturers are reluctant to sell. In terms of the market, there is no progress in export news, and operators have limited confidence in its benefits to the market. In addition, the initial round of replenishment in the market has been completed, and operators 'ability to accept high prices has declined. In terms of supply, although Nissan has been reduced in a narrow range, it still remains above 180,000 tons, and the supply is still abundant. On the demand side, agricultural demand procurement is in the spring plowing season, and the purchase of goods is obviously affected by emotions; there is still room for improvement in the capacity utilization rate of industrial compound fertilizer factories. The delivery of compound fertilizers is better, and the ability to purchase raw materials is gradually improving. Good industrial demand needs to be released continuously.

On the whole, urea manufacturers are currently reluctant to sell prices, and the positive demand side is gradually released. Currently, follow-up is limited and the mentality is more wait-and-see. It is expected that the urea market price will fluctuate and consolidate in a short period of time.