Methanol: Futures market pulled higher in the afternoon, and the Chinese market is running in a weak position

On March 6, the methanol market price index was 2241.83, down 0.53 from yesterday and 0.02 per cent lower than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on March 5:

China's CFR ranges from US $305 to US $307 per ton, down US $1 per ton
Us FOB 103104 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asia CFR US $347-348 per ton, Ping

European FOB 317.75-318.75 euros / ton, down 1 euro / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2150-2200 (0), North Route: 1920-1970 (0), Lunan: 2400-2420 (- 20), Henan: 2250-2285 (- 30), Shanxi: 2150-2230 (0), Port: 26502710 (- 10)

Freight:

North Line-North Shandong 330-390 (20amp 20), North Line-South Shandong 410-460 (0amp 0), South Line-North Shandong 290-350 (10ax 10), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 230-280 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol market fell in a narrow range, the futures disk rose in the afternoon, and the spot quotation of the port adjusted with the market, but at present, the follow-up of the downstream market demand is limited, and the market transaction atmosphere is limited. at present, some manufacturers in the Chinese market still have the demand for shipments, and then continue to let the profit go to the market, and some operators enter the market at a low price. Specifically, market prices in the main production areas have fallen, with prices on the southern line around 1990 yuan / ton, and those on the northern line around 1920-1970 yuan / ton, with a low-end increase of 10 yuan / ton. recently, the overall inventory pressure of manufacturers in the production areas still exists, and some manufacturers mainly reduce prices for shipments. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, fluctuated down, with southern Shandong 2400-2420 yuan / ton, low-end down 20 yuan / ton, northern Shandong 2300-2310 yuan / ton, parking and maintenance of some downstream devices in the field, demand-side support for methanol weakened, and operators' wait-and-see mood gradually increased. The market quotation in North China is adjusted narrowly. Hebei quotation is 2260-2320 yuan / ton today, which is maintained yesterday. Shanxi quotation today is 2150-2230 yuan / ton, and the lower end is reduced by 10 yuan / ton. the wait-and-see mood of the industry is gradually rising, and the market transaction speed is slowing. however, at present, there is no pressure on the inventory of manufacturers, and they still hold the mentality of standing price.

Port market: methanol futures consolidated after falling today. In the morning, the paper arbitrageurs are relatively active in shipping, the delivery is cautious, and the basis is weak; the afternoon talks are deadlocked, and the basis is stable. The overall transaction throughout the day is mediocre. Taicang main port transaction price: 3 transaction price: 2675-2695, base difference 05: 185pm 190 position 3 transaction: 2645-2675, base difference 05x160 position 3 transaction: 2620-2645, base difference 05135pm 140x 4 transaction: 2550-2565, basis difference 0555.

Future forecast: in the near future, the supply performance of the Chinese market is still abundant, and some manufacturers in the main producing areas have to reduce their prices in order to reduce their prices, but considering that the follow-up of the terminal downstream market demand is limited, the operators in the field hold a certain wait-and-see mood for the future. Market transactions mostly maintain rigid demand, and some downstream parking and maintenance in Shandong area, the demand for methanol is further reduced. Traders are cautious in entering the market, and under the support of tight spot negotiability, spot quotations remain strong, and the basis is still strong. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand in the Chinese market is obvious, and it is expected that the methanol market price is weak in the short term, but in the later stage, we should pay close attention to the macro, coal price, plant operation and downstream demand follow-up.