Daily review of urea: The factory is ready to support the demand side and still needs it (March 6)

China Urea Price Index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on March 6 was 2,350.27, an increase of 0.91 from yesterday, a month-on-month increase of 0.04% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.62%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2194, the highest price is 2210, the lowest price is 2182, the settlement price is 2196, and the closing price is 2200. The closing price is 14 lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 0.63% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2182-2210; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 90; the 05 contract has reduced its position by 6251 lots today, and so far, it has held 175082 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices have increased steadily to a small margin. Some factories are supporting orders. In addition, there is still demand on the market demand side, and the quotation continues to be adjusted upward.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,330 - 2,390 yuan/ton. Prices in North China have stabilized at 2,170 - 2,410 yuan/ton. Prices in East China have stabilized at 2,270 - 2,320 yuan/ton. Prices in South China are stable at 2,380 - 2,450 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,280 - 2,400 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,340 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,310 - 2,320 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,300 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, the transaction of new orders from manufacturers is still good, and the quotations of some factories continue to increase, driving the focus of market transactions to move up slightly. Currently, most factories in mainstream regions have a certain amount of pending orders to support, and shipments are progressing smoothly. In terms of the market, under the influence of on-site export news, new orders were traded well. The current market transaction center has slightly increased. After the increase, transactions slowed down slightly compared with the previous period, and the market loosened slightly. On the supply side, some companies have stopped installing equipment for maintenance, but Nissan has dropped within a narrow range, and supply is still abundant. On the demand side, the demand for green fertilizers for agricultural needs still exists, and periodic replenishment is currently maintained; the operating rates of industrial upstream and downstream compound fertilizer factories and the plate industry have gradually increased, and the purchase of goods is relatively positive, and there are still expectations of release just in need.

On the whole, urea companies are currently waiting for orders and are still in demand on the demand side. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to be slightly adjusted in a short period of time.