[Soda ash]3.5 Soda ash Daily Review: Supply exceeds demand, price weakness is mainly adjusted

Analysis of soda ash market

Today, the price of soda ash in China continues to decline. As of now, the price of light soda ash in East China is between 1,850 - 2,150 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,000 - 2,100 yuan/ton; the price of light soda ash in Southwest China is between 1,950 - 2,150 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,100 - 2,300 yuan/ton; the overall start of the soda ash market remains high, the signing of new orders is weak, and manufacturers 'inventories have increased; During the Spring Festival, supply and demand were strong. Market participants were mostly bearish on the future outlook, and soda ash prices remained weak.

Futures dynamics

According to Boduo data, the opening price of SA2405, the main contract for soda ash, on March 5, was 1950 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 1885 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.90% within the day. The highest intraday session was 1950 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1825 yuan/ton, with a total position of 556379 lots, a month-on-month period of-20617 lots.

Today, the main contract for soda ash fluctuated upward within a narrow range. Today, news of centralized soda plants meeting to insure prices and maintenance of some soda plants in March was heard. The current market prices were already highly contradictory. Affected by this news, the panic exit of short sellers rose sharply, once rising to 1800 yuan. However, some news later falsified and market sentiment also fell. The spot market is still filled with a pessimistic atmosphere. However, the current increase on the supply side has basically been realized and there is no negative driver for further growth. The demand side is currently reducing purchases and digesting its own inventory. The situation of new orders from soda plants in the short term is not good, but there is still a need for replenishment from downstream light soda companies. The short-term market may still be oscillating around 1750 to wait for new drivers.

market outlook

The supply-demand relationship in the soda ash market is difficult to change in the short term. Market shipments are under pressure. The price of new soda ash orders is stable and downward. Market purchasing sentiment is weak. Most of them are bearish on the future outlook. Moreover, the market is constantly impacted by low-cost sources, and the soda ash market will be stable and weak.