Methanol: Futures market continues to be weak, market transaction atmosphere is poor

On March 7, the methanol market price index was 2238.9, down 15.06 from yesterday and 0.67 per cent from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on March 4:

China's CFR ranges from US $305 to US $310 per ton, down by US $3 per ton
Us FOB 103104 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asian CFR 347-348 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars / ton

European FOB 318.75-319.75 euros / ton, down 0.25 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2150-2200 (0), North Route: 1910-1970 (- 40), Lunan: 2420 (0), Henan: 2280-2290 (- 20), Shanxi: 2150-2240 (- 10), Port: 2675-2695 (- 20)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 310-370 (10amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 300-360 (0amp 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 230-280 (0max 10)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol market is weak and volatile, the futures price of the main contract has fallen somewhat, the mood of some operators in the market to wait and see the future is gradually rising, and the enthusiasm of entering the market to replenish stock is limited. However, manufacturers in some regions of China still have a certain demand for inventory, and the exit quotation has dropped somewhat. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have fallen, with the quotation on the south line around 2050 yuan / ton, the price on the north line around 1910-1970 yuan / ton, and the lower end reduced by 40 yuan / ton, the futures market trend is volatile and downward, the negative market atmosphere, the general mentality of the market operators, and the market trading atmosphere list. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, fell, with southern Shandong 2420 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday's northern Shandong 2310-2330 yuan / ton. Futures market volatility fell, and the wait-and-see mood of the industry in the market was obvious. North China market quotation narrow adjustment, Hebei quotation today 2270-2320 yuan / ton, maintain yesterday, Shanxi today quoted price 2150-2240 yuan / ton, low-end down 10 yuan / ton, the market auction is more smooth.

Port market: methanol futures consolidated after falling today. In the morning, the paper arbitrageurs are relatively active in shipping, the delivery is cautious, and the basis is weak; the afternoon talks are deadlocked, and the basis is stable. The overall transaction throughout the day is mediocre. Taicang main port transaction price: 3 transaction price: 2675-2695, base difference 05: 185pm 190 position 3 transaction: 2645-2675, base difference 05x160 position 3 transaction: 2620-2645, base difference 05135pm 140x 4 transaction: 2550-2565, basis difference 0555.

Future forecast: recently, the raw material coal price is weak, the cost end support has weakened, coupled with the weak volatility of the futures market, the market operators hold a certain wait-and-see mood towards the future, and the market transactions mostly maintain rigid demand. although the demand in the traditional downstream market is recovering, the enterprise raw material inventory is still in a high position, which is still consumed mainly in the short term, but the port market is under the support of tight spot circulation. Spot quotations remain strong, and the basis is still strong. At present, some devices in Iran are restarted one after another, and imports are expected to increase in April compared with the previous period. At present, the volatility of the futures market has dropped, and some operators in the market are obviously pessimistic about the future, and it is expected that the methanol market price will be weak in the short term, but in the later stage, we still need to pay close attention to the macro and coal prices, the operation of the plant in the field and the follow-up of downstream demand.