Urea Daily Review: Export news guides market operators to fluctuate their emotions (March 5)

China Urea Price Index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on March 5 was 2,349.36, an increase of 12.41 from yesterday, a month-on-month increase of 0.53% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.65%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2215, the highest price is 2246, the lowest price is 2189, the settlement price is 2214, and the closing price is 2193. The closing price has increased by 8 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 0.37% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2189-2246; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 97; the 05 contract has reduced its position by 13649 lots today, and so far, it has held 181333 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices continue to increase. Guided by export news, the Chinese market is developing well and the market continues to rise.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China rose to 2,330 - 2,390 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,170 - 2,410 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,270 - 2,320 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,380 - 2,450 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China rose to 2,280 - 2,400 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles rose to 2,340 - 2,400 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China rose to 2,310 - 2,320 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,300 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, the new orders from manufacturers are still available. Supported by the current orders to be issued, and the supply of goods in the market is tight. Some manufacturers are accepting orders in limited quantities, and they are gradually reluctant to sell. In terms of the market, export news is still unclear, and we are waiting for guidance from this week's Nitrogen Association meeting. The sentiment of the industry remains high and volatile, and the bullish atmosphere is active. On the supply side, some companies stopped for maintenance, the industry's start-up high dropped slightly, and the market supply was tight in the short term. In terms of demand, there is still demand for green fertilizers in agriculture, and more and appropriate amounts will be followed up and replenished; industrial demand is stable, deposits have released expectations, and overall demand is well oriented.

On the whole, urea market operators are currently paying more attention to export news guidance. As it boosts the market trading atmosphere, it is expected that urea market prices will stabilize and increase in a short period of time.