Methanol: The methanol period is now weak and volatile, and the industry has obvious wait-and-see attitude

On March 4th, the methanol market price index was 2253.96, down 7.41 from the previous working day, and 0.33% lower than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on March 1:

China CFR 304,314 US dollars / ton, down 6 US dollars / ton
Us FOB 103104 cents per gallon, flat
Southeast Asian CFR 348-349 US dollars / ton, down 5 US dollars / ton

European FOB 319-320 euros / ton, down 8 euros / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2150-2200 (20), North Route: 1950-2000 (- 50), Lunan: 2420 (0), Henan: 2300-2320 (20), Shanxi: 2160-2250 (0), Port: 2695-2710 (- 20)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 300-370 (10ax 20), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 300-360 (10ax 10), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 230-280 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol market is weak and volatile, the futures price of the main contract has fallen somewhat, the mood of some operators in the market to wait and see the future is gradually rising, and the enthusiasm of entering the market to replenish stock is limited. However, manufacturers in some regions of China still have a certain demand for inventory, and the exit quotation has dropped somewhat. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been raised narrowly, with the quotation on the southern line around 2050 yuan / ton, the price on the northern line around 1950-2000 yuan / ton, and the lower end down by 50 yuan / ton. The futures market trend is volatile and downward, the negative market atmosphere, and the general mentality of the market operators. Most enterprises are still wait-and-see and have not yet issued a new price. Market prices in Shandong, the main consumer area, moved steadily, with 2420 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2330-2350 yuan / ton in northern Shandong last working day. Futures market volatility fell, and the wait-and-see mood of the operators in the market was obvious. The market quotation in North China is adjusted in a narrow range. Hebei quotes 2270-2320 yuan / ton today, maintaining the last working day. Shanxi quoted 2160-2250 yuan / ton today, which is stable at the low end. recently, the traditional downstream construction has increased slightly, and the demand for methanol has shown an increasing trend. promote the price of methanol in some areas of Shanxi to rise slightly.

Port market: methanol futures consolidated after falling today. Paper goods arbitrage quotation is the main, a small amount of unilateral bargain during the month, long-term arbitrage buying, the basis is slightly weaker. The monthly difference widened slightly, and the overall transaction was mediocre. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2695-2710, base difference 05 "190 prime" 200 position 3 deal: 2685-2710, base spread 05 "188 prime prime 195 position 3 transaction: 2675, basis difference 05" 160pm "168 bank" 3 : 2640-2660, basis 05140Universe 150. Deal: 2550-2570, basis 0560Universe 620.

Future forecast: in the near future, the raw material coal price is weak, the cost end support is weakened, coupled with the weak and volatile futures market, the market operators hold a certain wait-and-see mood towards the future, and most of the market transactions maintain rigid demand. although the demand of the traditional downstream market is recovering, the enterprise raw material inventory is still in a high position, the stock is still consumed in the short term, and the enthusiasm for restocking in the market is limited. However, under the support of tight spot negotiability in the port market, the spot quotation remains strong, and the basis is still strong. At present, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price is weak, but in the later stage, we should pay close attention to the macro, coal price, plant operation and downstream demand follow-up.