PVC: Futures 'upward trend is approaching the beginning of 6. In the afternoon, they take back some of the gains, and the focus of spot shifts slightly.

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March 4, 2024, 5:04 PM

PVC futures analysis: March 4 V2405 contract opening price: 5970, highest price: 5993, lowest price: 5923, position: 829051, settlement price: 5962, yesterday settlement: 5948, up: 14, daily trading volume: 773901 lots, precipitated capital: 3.457 billion, capital inflow: 22.53 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	March 1st	March fourth	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5580-5650	5590-5650	10/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	5660-5730	5660-5750	0/20	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5630-5730	5680-5780	50/50	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5500-5670	5510-5670	10/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5590-5650	5590-5650	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5530-5670	5530-5670	0/0	Kuti / send to

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices continue to rise slightly, spot market low prices have decreased. Compared with the valuation, North China rose 10 yuan / ton, East China increased 20 yuan / ton, South China rose 50 yuan / ton, Northeast China increased 10 yuan / ton, and Central China and Southwest China were stable. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises mostly remain stable and wait-and-see, individual enterprises slightly increase 20 yuan / ton, the futures market is first strong and then weak, but the overall adjustment is still high, so the spot market quotation center has moved up compared with last Friday, although the point price offer is still there, but the current basis advantage is declining, including East China basis offer 05 contract-(270), South China 05 contract-(200) North 05 contract-(550), Southwest 05 contract-(300). On the whole, although the price of today's spot market has risen, it has not ushered in a better deal. Downstream, it is cautious to wait and see, and it is relatively resistant to high-price quotations.

From a futures point of view: & the night price of the nbsp; PVC2405 contract maintained a narrow volatility trend on Friday, and the volatility of Qifa was relatively small. The late high continued to rise in early trading on Monday, and the high was once close to the prefix 6 but did not break through. The price then declined significantly and continued to weaken and give up some of the gains in the afternoon. 2405 contracts fluctuate in the range of 5932-5993 throughout the day, with a spread of 61. 05 contracts with an increase of 4987 positions and 829051 positions so far. The 2409 contract closed at 6093, with 140910 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operating high point of the nbsp; PVC05 contract price continues to break through. Since it broke through the midline last week, it has risen six times in a row, and the high point of the futures price is close to the highest point of six words, 5993, and the market shows a trend of slightly increasing positions. In terms of transaction, it is a trend that the opening is slightly larger than the short opening, which is slightly larger than the short opening. Empty single entry is insufficient, from the current time node to begin to gradually ferment the expectations of March-April. The technical level shows that the three tracks (13, 13, 2) of the Bolin belt have all turned upward. for the current price operation, we think or continue to test the high range, and continue to observe the performance in the range of 5950-6000, especially how the prefix 6 breaks through.

Spot aspect: First of all, the futures market open a small upward position. From the current point of view, on the one hand, it rises with the overall commodity index, on the other hand, for PVC fundamentals, it also begins to gradually enter the expectation of recovery in March-April. Therefore, the current short orders of the futures market are less involved, and there are certain risks, while the current trend at the spot level can not even compare with the futures market. Whether from the perspective of production enterprises or from the perspective of traders, spot digestion is still facing greater pressure, and the operation of the two cities deviates slightly. The procurement mechanism of downstream products enterprises in the spot market still maintains rigid demand, and tends to hang orders at a low price, and the rhythm of buying is continued. On the whole, we still maintain the previous view and observe the stability and persistence after the jump of spot market prices.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	March 1st	March fourth	Rate of change
	V2405 collection	5954	5957	3
	Average spot price in East China	5695	5705	10
	Average spot price in South China	5680	5730	50
	PVC2405 basis difference	-259	-252	7
	V2409 collection	6088	6093	5
	V2405-2409 close	-134	-136	-2
	PP2405 collection	7497	7496	-1
	Plastic L2405 collection	8260	8256	-4
	V--PP basis difference	-1543	-1539	4
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2306	-2299	7

China PVC Index: according to Tudoduo data, the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC rose 15.35, or 0.272%, to 5665.99 on March 4. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6001.33, down 2.28, with a range of 0.038%. The calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index decreased, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 335.34.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	3.1 warehouse receipt volume	3.4 warehouse receipt quantity	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	2,645	2,645	0
	Guangzhou materials	943	943	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	1,702	1,702	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	2,425	2,425	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	1,522	1,522	0
	Middle and far sea in Jiangyin	903	903	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	4,220	4,040	-180
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	2,673	2,673	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	4,790	4,790	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	21,600	21,500	-100
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	3,678	3,678	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Quick biography of Xiangyu in Shanghai	84	84	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	639	639	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,682	3,682	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	686	686	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,494	1,494	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	1,599	1,599	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		57,063	56,783	-280
Total		57,063	56,783	-280