Daily Review of Urea: Good news affects market trading atmosphere and improves (March 4)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on March 4 was 2,336.95, an increase of 17.27 from last Friday, a month-on-month increase of 0.74% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.20%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR405 contract is 2190, the highest price is 2201, the lowest price is 2170, the settlement price is 2185, and the closing price is 49% higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 2.29% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2170-2201; the basis of the 05 contract in Shandong is 97; the 05 contract has increased its position by 4342 lots today, and the position held so far is 194982 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices rose slightly. The market atmosphere was affected by positive factors, and new orders continued to follow up.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,310 - 2,380 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,160 - 2,380 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,260 - 2,320 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,380 - 2,450 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China rose to 2,260 - 2,380 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles rose to 2,340 - 2,380 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,260 - 2,270 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,300 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of factories, after some manufacturers 'quotations were loosened and lowered, the transaction volume of new orders increased significantly. Among the current orders received in advance for multiple shipments, the transaction volume of new orders continues to follow up. On the market side, after a slight increase in mainstream regional quotations, market transactions increased significantly. In addition, driven by the news of urea exports, market sentiment rebounded and the market rose. In terms of supply, Nissan has been reduced to 181,700 tons. In a short period of time, the spot supply of manufacturers has declined, but it is still operating at a high level. On the demand side, there is still market demand, and current industrial and agricultural demand still has some support. There are still one or two waves of demand for green fertilizers in mainstream agricultural demand areas; industrial demand is still continuing to follow up, and the demand side jointly supports the price rebound and upward consolidation.

On the whole, the current urea market has rebounded and higher. Driven by export news, there is a strong bullish atmosphere among industry operators. It is expected that the urea market price will stabilize and move upwards in a short period of time.